week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Burch Smith
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.40); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 18ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Smith is a hold — league average with no edge to act on.
ROS projects K 20 YTD → 18 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.4%—+6.2% ▲vs his ~21.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.40)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is above the ~40.0% league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.287
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
73 / 200 TBF
xERA3.40
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.70vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
73 / 200 TBF
ERA3.18
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.92vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
17 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm +6.2% ▲
73 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +0.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.0% norm — expect it to fall.
73 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.372
lg avg .295 ▲+.077vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
73 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
73 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
287 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.4%→22.9%signal18 K — K% 27.4% (signal) tempered to career ~21.2% → projected 22.9% over ~18 remaining…
xERA 3.40noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.40 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 17 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.