MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Burch Smith
DET · P
Change to
Portrait of Justin Sterner
Justin Sterner
ATH · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 00, 4 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Burch Smith wins 0 (none); Justin Sterner wins 0 (none); 4 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Burch Smith
93.8
Justin Sterner
93.5
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
10.4%
Justin Sterner
15.6%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
27.4%
Justin Sterner
21.7%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Burch Smith
26.2%
Justin Sterner
33.9%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
47.8%
Justin Sterner
45.0%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
4.3%
Justin Sterner
9.2%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Burch Smith
.287
Justin Sterner
.292
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Burch Smith
2.963.92
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.18
3.70
Justin Sterner
2.963.92
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.54
3.69
WHIPlower is better
Burch Smith
.9701.61
now 1.47
1.24
Justin Sterner
.9701.61
now 1.11
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Burch Smith
4034.40
now 20
5
Justin Sterner
4034.40
now 26
5
Winshigher is better
Burch Smith
.0002.80
now 0
00
Justin Sterner
.0002.80
now 2
01

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeBurch Smith — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeJustin Sterner — hold.conf 0.50
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