MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Burch Smith
DET · P
Change to
Portrait of Craig Kimbrel
Craig Kimbrel
KC · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 0–0, 4 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Burch Smith wins 0 (none); Craig Kimbrel wins 0 (none); 4 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Burch Smith
93.8
Craig Kimbrel
93.6
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
10.4%
Craig Kimbrel
11.1%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
27.4%
Craig Kimbrel
20.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Burch Smith
26.2%
Craig Kimbrel
28.7%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
47.8%
Craig Kimbrel
36.6%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
4.3%
Craig Kimbrel
5.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Burch Smith
.287
Craig Kimbrel
.316
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Burch Smith
2.206.61
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.18
3.70
Craig Kimbrel
2.206.61
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.63
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Burch Smith
1.151.56
now 1.47
1.24
Craig Kimbrel
1.151.56
now 1.44
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Burch Smith
4028
now 20
0
Craig Kimbrel
4028
now 17
0
Winshigher is better
Burch Smith
.000.480
now 0
0–0
Craig Kimbrel
.000.480
now 0
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeBurch Smith — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeCraig Kimbrel — hold.conf 0.50
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