week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Craig Kimbrel
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 27, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.23); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0
Kimbrel is a hold — league average and nothing unstable
ROS projects K 17 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.44 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.4%—−18.1% ▼vs his ~38.5% career norm
- Walk %11.2%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~10.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.23)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
131 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
131 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
196 / 200 TBF
xERA4.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.13vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
196 / 200 TBF
ERA4.50
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −18.1% ▼
196 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
196 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
131 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
196 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
196 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
776 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.4%→29.5%signal0 K — K% 20.4% (signal) lifted to career ~38.5% → projected 29.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.23noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.23 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 11.2% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.50 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.