week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Craig Kimbrel
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
new call as of July 28, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.98); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 26ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Kimbrel is a hold — near league average, nothing driving action.
ROS projects K 17 YTD → 26 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.7%—−15.8% ▼vs his ~38.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.98)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
86 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
86 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
128 / 200 TBF
xERA3.98
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.12vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
128 / 200 TBF
ERA4.36
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.26vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −15.8% ▼
128 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm −1.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.4% norm — expect it to rise.
128 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.272
lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
86 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
128 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
128 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.3 mphvs his norm —
522 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.7%→32.3%signal26 K — K% 22.7% (signal) lifted to career ~38.5% → projected 32.3% over ~17 remaining IP.
xERA 3.98noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.98 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 9.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.