MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Burch Smith
DET · P
Change to
Portrait of Devin Williams
Devin Williams
NYM · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 0–0, 4 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Burch Smith wins 0 (none); Devin Williams wins 0 (none); 4 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Burch Smith
93.8
Devin Williams
93.9
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
10.4%
Devin Williams
17.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
27.4%
Devin Williams
28.7%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Burch Smith
26.2%
Devin Williams
39.0%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
47.8%
Devin Williams
29.6%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
4.3%
Devin Williams
4.6%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Burch Smith
.287
Devin Williams
.282
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Burch Smith
2.296.29
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.18
3.70
Devin Williams
2.296.29
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.40
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Burch Smith
1.121.67
now 1.47
1.24
Devin Williams
1.121.67
now 1.55
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Burch Smith
4043.40
now 20
0
Devin Williams
4043.40
now 31
0
Winshigher is better
Burch Smith
.0004.20
now 0
0–0
Devin Williams
.0004.20
now 3
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeBurch Smith — hold.conf 0.50
Buy LowDevin Williams — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.90
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