MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of José A. Ferrer
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

José A. Ferrer

SEA·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.09); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.95WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0–0

Ferrer is a hold — league-average run prevention, nothing unstable underneath.

His expected ERA is 4.09, essentially identical to the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 295 batters — past the 200 threshold where that number becomes reliable. Nothing is propping up the surface or dragging it down. His expected wOBA allowed is .311, four points under league, and his contact quality sits at or better than average: 36.0% hard-hit allowed against 40.0%, 6.1% barrels against 8.0%. The one honest caveat is the strikeout rate, 18.3% against a 22.0% league mark, with a 9.8% swinging-strike rate below league — he is not missing bats. But the walk rate is 6.8%, better than league, and that keeps the profile level. The xERA trend is stepping down across the sample, which is the only movement worth noting, and it lands him right where he started: average. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.3%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~20.3% career norm
  • Walk %6.8%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~5.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.09)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.0%
36.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
214 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
214 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
believable since Aug 3.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
295 / 200 TBF
xERA4.09
4.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01vs his norm —
295 / 200 TBF
ERA4.17
4.17*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.07vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
64.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
norm18.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
295 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
norm6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
295 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
214 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
9.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
295 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.5%
29.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
295 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.0 mph
98.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.0 mphvs his norm —
1090 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.3%→19.1%signal0 K — K% 18.3% (signal) lifted to career ~20.3% → projected 19.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.09signal3.95 ERA — xERA 4.09 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdrop3 SV, 3.95 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups