MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of José A. Ferrer
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

José A. Ferrer

SEA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.73, 0.37 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.71
ROSK 4ERA 3.72WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0–1

Ferrer is a buy — the stuff keeps getting better.

His average fastball is 97.5 mph, 3.5 mph above league average, and that gap has been growing across the sample. That is the engine behind everything else: his expected ERA is 3.73, well under the league's 4.10, and the skill numbers back it. He limits hard contact to 36.8% and barrels to 5.2%, both better than league, on 193 batted balls — past the point those numbers become reliable. His expected wOBA allowed of .299 sits 16 points below league average with 265 batters faced, comfortably past the 200 needed. He walks just 6.8% of hitters. The strikeout rate of 18.1% is modest, but nothing here is being propped up by luck. Buy. Deep-league stash only: 4 K and a 3.72 ERA won't move a mixed roster, but the 97.5 mph arm earns an add where you can hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.1%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~20.3% career norm
  • Walk %6.8%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~5.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.73, 0.37 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.8%
36.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
193 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
193 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.299
believable since Aug 3.299*
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —
265 / 200 TBF
xERA3.73
3.73*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.37vs his norm —
265 / 200 TBF
ERA3.77
3.77*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.33vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
59.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.1%
norm18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
265 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
norm6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
265 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.324
.324*
lg avg .295 ▲+.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
193 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
265 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
29.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
265 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.5 mph
97.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.5 mphvs his norm —
983 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.1%→19.1%signal4 K — K% 18.1% (signal) lifted to career ~20.3% → projected 19.1% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.73signal3.72 ERA — xERA 3.73 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.72 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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