week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
José A. Ferrer
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.23); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 19WHIP 1.24ERA 3.67W 0–0SV 2–3
Ferrer is a hold — league-average with limited data.
ROS projects K 23 YTD → 19 ROS, WHIP 1.20 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.5%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~20.3% career norm
- Walk %5.7%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~5.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.23)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
126 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
126 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.281
lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
174 / 200 TBF
xERA3.23
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.87vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
174 / 200 TBF
ERA2.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.15vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
39.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
174 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
174 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.339
lg avg .295 ▲+.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
126 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
174 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
174 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —
648 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.5%→19.9%signal19 K — K% 19.5% (signal) lifted to career ~20.3% → projected 19.9% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 3.23noise3.67 ERA — xERA 3.23 (noise) blended 6% skill / 94% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 5.7% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 6%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-3 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep5 SV, 3.67 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.