Is David Peterson a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is David Peterson's rest-of-season outlook?

xERA 4.76 with a .323 BABIP hole behind him

week 31

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

David Peterson

CHC·P

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

Sell stable xERA 4.76 +0.66 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.75

ROSK 0ERA 4.53WHIP 1.44W 0–0SV 0

Peterson is a sell — his xERA is climbing and the skill is thin

His expected ERA is 4.76, .66 above the league average of 4.10, and 663 batters is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing in the profile says the number is lying. He strikes out 20.7% of batters, below the league's 22.0%, and walks 9.8%, above the league's 8.0% — a rate that has also had enough batters faced to trust. His swinging-strike rate of 10.5% sits below league and his fastball averages 92.5 mph against a 94.0 league mark, so the missed bats are not hiding anywhere. His .333 expected wOBA allowed is 18 points above league. He does keep barrels down at 6.3%, but too few of his walks and too little bat-missing carry that. The trend is the wrong direction: his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. Sean. 0 K and a 4.53 ERA forecast makes him waiver-tier — fade the 1.44 WHIP and cut bait.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %20.7%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm
Walk %9.8%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.76 +0.66 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —

457 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed6.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —

457 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.333

lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —

663 / 200 TBF

xERA4.76

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.66vs his norm —

663 / 200 TBF

ERA4.79

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.69vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.

148.3 / 200 IP

Strikeout %20.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −2.1% ▼

663 / 70 TBF

Walk %9.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm +0.1% ▲

663 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.323

lg avg .295 ▲+.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

457 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %10.5%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —

663 / 60 TBF

Chase %28.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —

663 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo92.5 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —

2476 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 20.7%→21.2%signal0 K — K% 20.7% (signal) lifted to career ~22.8% → projected 21.2% over ~0 remaining IP.

xERA 4.76signal4.53 ERA — xERA 4.76 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 57 IP.

BB% 9.8% + contactsignal1.44 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.311 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 6…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.53 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons