MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of David Peterson
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

David Peterson

CHC·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell stable xERA 5.30 +1.20 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 57ERA 4.88WHIP 1.47W 2–4SV 0

Peterson is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.

His expected ERA is 5.30, which is a run-and-a-quarter above the league average of 4.10, and the sample is past the point where it becomes reliable. His actual ERA likely tracks close to that, because there is no luck story pushing the line around: his BABIP-against is not suppressed. The underlying numbers all point in the same direction. He strikes out 18.3% of batters, below league average, and walks 9.7%, above league average. His fastball sits at 92.2 mph, nearly two ticks below the league mark. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, meaning the trend is not your friend. The skill is what the numbers say. Sell. 57 K at a 4.88 ERA makes this a droppable arm — let someone else ride the fade.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.3%—−4.5% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm
  • Walk %9.7%—−0.0% ▼vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.30 +1.20 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.0%
43.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
272 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
272 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.352
.352*
lg avg .315 ▲+.037vs his norm —
382 / 200 TBF
xERA5.30
5.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.20vs his norm —
382 / 200 TBF
ERA6.45
6.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.35vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
82.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
norm18.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −4.5% ▼
382 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
norm9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm −0.0% ▼
382 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.340
.340*
lg avg .295 ▲+.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
272 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
382 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
29.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
382 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.2 mph
92.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
1374 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.3%→19.8%signal57 K — K% 18.3% (signal) lifted to career ~22.8% → projected 19.8% over ~54 remaining IP.
xERA 5.30signal4.88 ERA — xERA 5.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 57 IP.
BB% 9.7% + contactsignal1.47 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.310 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop57 K ROS, 4.88 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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