MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of David Peterson
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

David Peterson

CHC·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xERA 4.98 +0.88 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.81
ROSK 12ERA 4.67WHIP 1.47W 0–1SV 0

Peterson is a sell — his expected ERA is a run above league.

His expected ERA is 4.98, and with 599 batters faced, that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. It is .88 above the league average, and there is no luck story to fall back on. His xwOBA allowed is .341, well above the league average of .315. His strikeout rate of 19.5% is below league average, and his walk rate of 9.8% is above it, so he is putting fewer hitters away while putting more of them on. The one redeeming stat — a 6.2% barrel rate allowed against a league average of 8.0% — does not rescue the rest. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, which is the wrong direction. He is what the numbers say. Sell. 12 K and 4.67 ERA ROS make him streaming-only — no wait, drop; the body already said sell.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.5%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm
  • Walk %9.8%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.98 +0.88 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.6%
40.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
419 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
419 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.341
.341*
lg avg .315 ▲+.026vs his norm —
599 / 200 TBF
xERA4.98
4.98*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.88vs his norm —
599 / 200 TBF
ERA5.28
5.28*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.18vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
131.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.5%
norm19.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −3.3% ▼
599 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.8%
norm9.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
599 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
419 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
10.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
599 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
28.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
599 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.5 mph
92.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
2217 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.5%→20.3%signal12 K — K% 19.5% (signal) lifted to career ~22.8% → projected 20.3% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 4.98signal4.67 ERA — xERA 4.98 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 57 IP.
BB% 9.8% + contactsignal1.47 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.315 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop12 K ROS, 4.67 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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