MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jameson Taillon
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jameson Taillon

CHC·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 5.48 +1.38 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 48ERA 5.00WHIP 1.31W 1–3SV 0

Taillon is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.

His expected ERA is 5.48 — more than a full run above the league average of 4.10 — and his sample of 287 batters faced is past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual ERA may look similar because his walk rate and strikeout rate are both nearly league average, so there is no bad-luck story to fall back on. The real problem is the contact he allows: his barrel rate is 14.3%, nearly double the league average of 8.0%, and his hard-hit rate is near average. Opponents are squaring him up. There is no unstable stat dragging his line down; this is the pitcher he is. Sell. 48 K with a 5.00 ERA and 1.31 WHIP makes Taillon a drop, not a roster-anywhere asset.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.0%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~5.8% career norm
  • Strikeout %20.6%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~20.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.48 +1.38 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.4%
38.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
203 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed14.3%
14.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
203 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.357
.357*
lg avg .315 ▲+.042vs his norm —
287 / 200 TBF
xERA5.48
5.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.38vs his norm —
287 / 200 TBF
ERA5.19
5.19*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
67.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.6%
norm20.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
287 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.0%
norm8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
287 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.246
.246*
lg avg .295 ▼−.049vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
203 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
287 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.0%
31.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
287 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.8 mph
91.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
1129 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.6%→20.7%signal48 K — K% 20.6% (signal) held to career ~20.9% → projected 20.7% over ~57 remaining IP.
xERA 5.48signal5.00 ERA — xERA 5.48 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 60 IP.
BB% 8.0% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop48 K ROS, 5.00 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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