MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jameson Taillon
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jameson Taillon

TOR·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 5.91 +1.81 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 11ERA 5.28WHIP 1.32W 0–1SV 0

Taillon is a sell — expected ERA says the skill isn't there.

His expected ERA is 5.91, a full 1.81 runs above the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. There is no luck to blame. His xwOBA allowed is .367 against a league average of .315, and his hard-hit rate allowed sits at 39.6%, right at league. The problem is contact quality: he gives up barrels on 14.6% of batted balls, nearly double the 8.0% league rate, and that expected ERA has been climbing across the sample rather than settling down. His strikeout rate is 20.5%, below league, so he is not missing enough bats to offset the damage, and his fastball averages 91.8 mph, well under the 94.0 league mark. This is the level he's at. Sell. With 11 K and a 5.28 ERA ROS, he's a drop — a deep-league streamer at best, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.6%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~5.8% career norm
  • Strikeout %20.5%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~20.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.91 +1.81 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
39.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
260 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed14.6%
14.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
260 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.367
.367*
lg avg .315 ▲+.052vs his norm —
370 / 200 TBF
xERA5.91
5.91*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.81vs his norm —
370 / 200 TBF
ERA5.65
5.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.55vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
86 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.5%
norm20.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
370 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
370 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.249
.249*
lg avg .295 ▼−.046vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
260 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
370 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
30.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
370 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.8 mph
91.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
1443 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.5%→20.6%signal11 K — K% 20.5% (signal) held to career ~20.9% → projected 20.6% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 5.91signal5.28 ERA — xERA 5.91 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 60 IP.
BB% 8.6% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 5.28 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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