MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jameson Taillon
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jameson Taillon

TOR·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xERA 5.96 +1.86 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 5.31WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0

Taillon is a sell — the contact he allows is the real problem.

His expected ERA is 5.96, nearly two full runs above the league average of 4.10, and it has been climbing across the sample. That is not noise; 370 batters faced clears the threshold where the number becomes reliable. The mechanism is contact: he allows a .367 expected wOBA against a .315 league mark, and his barrel rate allowed is 14.6% against an 8.0% league average, both past the point of trust. He strikes out 20.5% of batters, below league, so there is no swing-and-miss floor to lean on. The walk rate is near average and the hard-hit rate allowed is roughly league, which means the damage is concentrated in the pitches he leaves over the plate. There is no luck story to explain it away. Sell. 0 K and 5.31 ERA is streaming-only — a waiver-wire drag, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.6%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~5.8% career norm
  • Strikeout %20.5%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~20.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.96 +1.86 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
39.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
260 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed14.6%
14.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
260 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.367
.367*
lg avg .315 ▲+.052vs his norm —
370 / 200 TBF
xERA5.96
5.96*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.86vs his norm —
370 / 200 TBF
ERA5.65
5.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.55vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
86 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.5%
norm20.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
370 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
370 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.249
.249*
lg avg .295 ▼−.046vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
260 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
370 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
30.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
370 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.8 mph
91.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
1443 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.5%→20.6%signal0 K — K% 20.5% (signal) held to career ~20.9% → projected 20.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.96signal5.31 ERA — xERA 5.96 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 60 IP.
BB% 8.6% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 5.31 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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