week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Jose Cabrera
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (4.95); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Cabrera is a hold — league-average skill with a capped ceiling.
ROS projects K 3 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.95)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.0%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.339
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
119 / 200 TBF
xERA4.95
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.85vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
119 / 200 TBF
ERA4.33
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.23vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
27 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —
119 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
119 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.277
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
119 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
119 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
423 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.1%→16.5%signal0 K — K% 15.1% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 16.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.95noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.95 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 5 IP.
BB% 8.4% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.