week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Brock Burke
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.51 is 1.49 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23WHIP 1.27ERA 3.75W 0–1SV 0–1
Burke is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %14.1%—+6.5% ▲vs his ~7.7% career norm
- Strikeout %20.3%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~22.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.51 is 1.49 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.8%vs his norm —
125 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
125 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
192 / 200 TBF
xERA4.51
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
192 / 200 TBF
ERA3.02
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.08vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
44.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
192 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm +6.5% ▲
192 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.258
lg avg .295 ▼−.037vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
125 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
192 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
192 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
713 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.3%→21.4%signal23 K — K% 20.3% (signal) lifted to career ~22.5% → projected 21.4% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 4.51noise3.75 ERA — xERA 4.51 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 14.1% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.63 skill WHIP, blended 7…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.