week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
————————
Brock Burke
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Burke is a sell-high — ERA flattered by BABIP luck.
His ERA is 3.62, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. The key number is his BABIP-against, which sits at .264 — well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has only 76. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip that out and his expected ERA jumps to 4.71 — more than a run higher than the surface ERA. His strikeout rate is a hair above league average, but his barrel rate allowed is 10.5%, above the 8.0% league average. The xERA is not yet past its stabilization point, but the gap is wide enough to signal regression. Limited data here: this call rests on the most unstable stat being the one holding down his ERA. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.71 is 1.09 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL76 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL76 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025too early to trust
NOISE120 / 200 TBF
xERA4.71
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.61too early to trust
NOISE120 / 200 TBF
ERA3.62
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.48too early to trust
NOISE27.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL120 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.3%too early to trust
NOISE120 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.264
lg avg .295 ▼−.031too early to trust
NOISE76 / 800 BIP