week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Brock Burke
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.65 is 1.35 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.65WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0–0
Burke is a sell-high — the ERA leans on a BABIP that won't hold.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %12.7%—+5.0% ▲vs his ~7.7% career norm
- Strikeout %23.6%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~22.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.65 is 1.35 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.3%vs his norm —
196 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
196 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —
314 / 200 TBF
xERA3.65
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.45vs his norm —
314 / 200 TBF
ERA2.30
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.80vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
74.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
314 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm +5.0% ▲
314 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.259
lg avg .295 ▼−.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
196 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
314 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
314 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.2 mphvs his norm —
1180 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.6%→23.2%signal0 K — K% 23.6% (signal) tempered to career ~22.5% → projected 23.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.65signal3.65 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.65 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 12.7% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.