week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Brock Burke
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.62 is 1.12 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5ERA 3.62WHIP 1.41W 0–0SV 0–0
Burke is a sell-high — the ERA is hiding in BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %13.3%—+5.7% ▲vs his ~7.7% career norm
- Strikeout %24.2%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~22.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.62 is 1.12 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.7%vs his norm —
179 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
179 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —
293 / 200 TBF
xERA3.62
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.48vs his norm —
293 / 200 TBF
ERA2.50
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.60vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
68.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
293 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm +5.7% ▲
293 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.260
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
179 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
293 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
293 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.2 mphvs his norm —
1109 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.2%→23.5%signal5 K — K% 24.2% (signal) tempered to career ~22.5% → projected 23.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.62signal3.62 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.62 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 13.3% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.50 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.62 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.