week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Paul Blackburn
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.54 is 1.82 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.225 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 3ERA 3.54WHIP 1.30W 0–1SV 0
Blackburn is a sell-high — his 1.72 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.3%—+3.5% ▲vs his ~17.8% career norm
- Walk %9.2%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.225 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.54 is 1.82 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
211 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
211 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.292
lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —
305 / 200 TBF
xERA3.54
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56vs his norm —
305 / 200 TBF
ERA1.72
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.38vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
78.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm +3.5% ▲
305 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
305 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.225
lg avg .295 ▼−.070vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
211 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
305 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
305 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
1123 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.3%→19.9%signal3 K — K% 21.3% (signal) tempered to career ~17.8% → projected 19.9% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 3.54signal3.54 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.54 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.2% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.54 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.