MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Paul Blackburn
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Paul Blackburn

NYY·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.68 is 2.09 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 3.68WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0

Blackburn is a sell-high — his 1.59 ERA is BABIP luck.

His ERA is 1.59, and his BABIP-against is .230 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 233, so that suppression is luck, not skill. The luck-free number tells the story: his xERA is 3.68, more than two runs above what the scoreboard shows, and it has been stepping down across the sample as the noisy contact results settle. His strikeout rate of 20.5% sits below league average and his walk rate of 9.8% sits above it, so his command is not a reason to expect the run prevention to hold. The surface is flattering him; the underlying numbers are not. Sell high. Rosy 3.68 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are the deep-league regression drag — sell the inflated line before it settles.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.5%—+2.7% ▲vs his ~17.8% career norm
  • Walk %9.8%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.68 is 2.09 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.2%
35.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
233 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.6%
5.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
233 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.296
believable since Jul 20.296*
lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —
336 / 200 TBF
xERA3.68
3.68*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.42vs his norm —
336 / 200 TBF
ERA1.59
1.59*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.51vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
85 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.5%
norm20.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm +2.7% ▲
336 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.8%
norm9.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
336 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.230
.230*
lg avg .295 ▼−.065vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
233 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
336 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.4%
28.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
336 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
94.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
1238 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.5%→19.5%signal0 K — K% 20.5% (signal) tempered to career ~17.8% → projected 19.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.68signal3.68 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.68 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.8% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.276 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.68 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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