MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Paul Blackburn
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Paul Blackburn

NYY·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.48 is 1.26 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 15WHIP 1.24ERA 3.69W 1–3SV 0

Blackburn is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.

His ERA is 2.22, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. His BABIP-against is .250 — well below the league average of .295 — and it needs 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 140, so that gap is pure luck. Strip out the luck and his expected ERA is 3.48, over a run higher. His strikeout rate (19.2%) is below average, his walk rate (7.8%) is average, and his barrel rate allowed (7.1%) is near league average. There is no elite skill propping up the ERA. The sample is limited, but the regression signal is clear: the current ERA is not sustainable. Sell high. Sell into that 3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 15 K outlook — this deep-league asset is overvalued now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.2%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~17.8% career norm
  • Walk %7.8%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.48 is 1.26 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.9%vs his norm —
140 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
140 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
.291*
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
193 / 200 TBF
xERA3.48
3.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
193 / 200 TBF
ERA2.22
2.22*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.88vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
48.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.2%
norm19.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
193 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
normbelievable since Jul 67.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
193 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
.250*
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
140 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
193 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.1%
27.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
193 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
94.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
688 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.2%→18.5%signal15 K — K% 19.2% (signal) tempered to career ~17.8% → projected 18.5% over ~24 remaining…
xERA 3.48noise3.69 ERA — xERA 3.48 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 7.8% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 4%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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