MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Mike Paredes

MIN·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High strikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.228 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.16 is 0.56 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.77
ROSK 36ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Paredes is a sell-high — BABIP luck is propping up his ERA.

His ERA sits at 4.60, but the number keeping it down is his BABIP-against: .228, 67 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 99 — that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 5.16, over half a run higher than the actual ERA, pointing at regression. He strikes out only 11.7% of batters, well below the league mark of 22%, and his chase rate is right at league average, so there is no swing-and-miss story to fall back on. His hard-hit rate allowed is 50.5% — 10 points above league — so he is getting hit hard, just at fielders. When the BABIP normalizes, the ERA will rise. Sell high. 36 K with a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP is a deep-league sell-high window before the 5.16 xERA catches up.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.228 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.16 is 0.56 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.5%
50.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.5%vs his norm —
99 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
99 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.348
.348*
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
128 / 200 TBF
xERA5.16
5.16*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.06vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
128 / 200 TBF
ERA4.60
4.60*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.50vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
29.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %11.7%
11.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.3%vs his norm —
128 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
128 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.228
.228*
lg avg .295 ▼−.067vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
99 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
128 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.7%
28.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
128 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.0 mph
93.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
462 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 11.7%→14.2%signal36 K — K% 11.7% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 14.2% over ~36 remaining IP.
xERA 5.16noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.16 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 8.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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