MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Mike Paredes

MIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High strikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.25 is 0.53 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.76
ROSK 8ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Paredes is a sell-high — the ERA is built on BABIP luck.

His ERA of 4.72 looks better than the skill underneath it, and the reason is his BABIP-against: .270, 25 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 118, so that gap is luck, not a skill players can repeat. His expected ERA is 5.25 — .53 higher than the actual ERA — and that is the number that tells the truth about how he is pitching. He strikes out 12.3% of batters, well below the 22% league average, and that number is stable across 154 batters faced. He also allows hard contact on 50.8% of batted balls, ten points above league. There is no swing-and-miss pitch to lean on, and his strikeout rate is stepping down. Sell high. Trade the 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP window while the 8 K line still reads as an asset — a deep-league sell, not a hold.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.25 is 0.53 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.8%
50.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.8%vs his norm —
118 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
118 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
.349*
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 200 TBF
xERA5.25
5.25*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.15vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 200 TBF
ERA4.72
4.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.62vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
34.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.7%vs his norm —
154 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
.270*
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
118 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
154 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.5%
28.5%*
lg avg 28.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
154 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.0 mph
93.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
551 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 12.3%→14.6%signal8 K — K% 12.3% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 14.6% over ~9 remaining IP.
xERA 5.25noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.25 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 8.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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