MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Mike Paredes

MIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High strikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.26 is 0.54 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.77
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Paredes is a sell-high — the ERA is propped up by BABIP luck.

His ERA of 4.72 looks manageable, but the number holding it there is his BABIP-against: .270, below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 118, so that gap is luck and it will close. His expected ERA is 5.26, more than half a run worse than the ERA — that is the regression waiting for him. The strikeout rate is the problem underneath: 12.3% against a league average of 22%, stable at 154 batters faced, and stepping down across the sample. He is not missing bats, and his hard-hit rate allowed is 50.8% against a league average of 40%. There is no swing-and-miss to fall back on when the bounces turn. Sell high. The 0 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP line is deep-league smoke, not a hold — sell the inflated asset before regression lands.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.26 is 0.54 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.8%
50.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.8%vs his norm —
118 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
118 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.348
.348*
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 200 TBF
xERA5.26
5.26*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.16vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 200 TBF
ERA4.72
4.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.62vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
34.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.7%vs his norm —
154 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
.270*
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
118 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
154 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.5%
28.5%*
lg avg 28.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
154 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.0 mph
93.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
551 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 12.3%→14.6%signal0 K — K% 12.3% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 14.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.26noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.26 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 8.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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