week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Blake Snell
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.16); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Snell is a hold — the elite strikeout form is real, the verdict is patience.
ROS projects K 5 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %33.1%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~30.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.16)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed15.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−24.1%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.228
lg avg .315 ▼−.087vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
157 / 200 TBF
xERA2.16
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.94vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
157 / 200 TBF
ERA1.86
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.24vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
38.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %33.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.1%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
157 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm −0.7% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.9% norm — expect it to rise.
157 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.299
lg avg .295 ▲+.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
157 / 60 TBF
Chase %40.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.8%vs his norm —
157 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
664 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 33.1%→31.4%signal0 K — K% 33.1% (signal) tempered to career ~30.1% → projected 31.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.16noise4.10 ERA — xERA 2.16 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 3 IP.
BB% 10.2% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.