week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Logan Allen
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.21); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Allen is a hold — league average, nothing pulling either way
ROS projects K 10 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.8%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~19.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.21)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
57 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
57 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.315
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
81 / 200 TBF
xERA4.21
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.11vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 200 TBF
ERA5.94
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.84vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
16.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
81 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −1.8% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.2% norm — expect it to rise.
81 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.370
lg avg .295 ▲+.075vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
57 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.0 mphvs his norm —
325 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.8%→19.7%signal0 K — K% 19.8% (signal) tempered to career ~19.6% → projected 19.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.21noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.21 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 7 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.