MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Wandy Peralta
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Wandy Peralta

SD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.09); strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 4ERA 3.95WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0

Peralta is a hold — average arm, stable, nothing pulling either way.

His expected ERA is 4.09, right at the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .312 against a league average of .315, so the contact he gives up is ordinary. Nothing here is being held up or dragged down by luck. The one number that limits him is his strikeout rate: 15.4%, well below the league average of 22%, and below his own 19.1% career baseline, with the trend stepping down across the sample. He still throws hard at 96.3 mph, but the swing-and-miss has not come with it. League-average skill with a shrinking strikeout rate is not a buy and not a sell. Hold. 4 K and a 3.95 ERA over the ROS is waiver-tier, so hold the status quo only as deep-league filler.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.4%—−3.7% ▼vs his ~19.1% career norm
  • Walk %8.1%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~10.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.09)
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.8%
33.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
216 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.7%
3.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
216 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.312
believable since Jul 20.312*
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
285 / 200 TBF
xERA4.09
4.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01vs his norm —
285 / 200 TBF
ERA3.44
3.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.66vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
68 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.4%
norm15.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.6%vs his norm −3.7% ▼
285 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.1%
norm8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
285 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.313
.313*
lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
216 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
285 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.4%
33.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
285 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
96.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
1091 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.4%→16.9%signal4 K — K% 15.4% (signal) lifted to career ~19.1% → projected 16.9% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.09signal3.95 ERA — xERA 4.09 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 8.1% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.95 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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