week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Nick Davila
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (4.98); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0
Davila is a hold — league average, nothing unstable either way.
ROS projects K 5 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.98)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.9%vs his norm —
89 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
89 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
119 / 200 TBF
xERA4.98
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.88vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
119 / 200 TBF
ERA4.94
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.84vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
27.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %10.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−11.1%vs his norm —
119 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
119 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.253
lg avg .295 ▼−.042vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
119 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
119 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
446 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 10.9%→13.5%signal0 K — K% 10.9% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 13.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.98noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.98 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 8 IP.
BB% 10.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.66 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.