week 20
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—
Nick Davila
data as of August 8, 2026·week 20
Sell High strikeout rate 10% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.214 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.77 is 1.20 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 10ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 1–3
Davila is a sell-high — the ERA is BABIP, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.214 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.77 is 1.20 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 10% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed25.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−14.6%vs his norm —
71 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
71 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
94 / 200 TBF
xERA4.77
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.67vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
94 / 200 TBF
ERA3.57
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.53vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
22.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %9.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−12.4%vs his norm —
94 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
94 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.214
lg avg .295 ▼−.081vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
71 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
94 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
94 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
355 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 9.6%→12.5%signal10 K — K% 9.6% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 12.5% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.77noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.77 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 8 IP.
BB% 11.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.72 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-3 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.