MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Robert Suarez
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Robert Suarez

ATL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP-against 0.240 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.35 is 2.29 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 3.68WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0

Suarez is a sell-high — his 1.06 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.

His ERA is 1.06, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .240, 55 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 97 — that gap is luck, not a skill signal. His expected ERA is 3.35, a 2.29-run difference that points straight at regression. There is a real skill here: he misses bats, with a 12.5% swinging-strike rate above league and 98.7 mph velocity, and his hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are better than league. But the gulf between the surface and the expected line is luck, not skill. Sell high. Sell into that gap: the ROS line of 0 K / 3.68 ERA / 1.24 WHIP is a deep-league trade window, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.0%—−6.1% ▼vs his ~26.1% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.240 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.35 is 2.29 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.0%
33.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.0%vs his norm —
97 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.1%
3.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
97 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
.283*
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
130 / 200 TBF
xERA3.35
3.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
130 / 200 TBF
ERA1.06
1.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−3.04vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
34 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.0%
norm20.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −6.1% ▼
130 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.6%
norm4.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm −2.8% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.4% norm — expect it to rise.
130 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.240
.240*
lg avg .295 ▼−.055vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
97 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
130 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.4%
38.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.9%vs his norm —
130 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.7 mph
98.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.7 mphvs his norm —
487 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.0%→23.7%signal0 K — K% 20.0% (signal) lifted to career ~26.1% → projected 23.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.35noise3.68 ERA — xERA 3.35 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 4.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.68 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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