week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Robert Suarez
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.26 is 2.70 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 21ERA 3.68WHIP 1.24W 2–5SV 2–4
Suarez is a sell-high — ERA hiding behind BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.5%—−4.6% ▼vs his ~26.1% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.26 is 2.70 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.0%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.282
lg avg .315 ▼−.033vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
121 / 200 TBF
xERA3.26
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.84vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
121 / 200 TBF
ERA0.56
lg avg 4.10 ▼−3.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
32 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −4.6% ▼
121 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm −2.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.4% norm — expect it to rise.
121 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.230
lg avg .295 ▼−.065vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.3%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.8 mphvs his norm —
466 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.5%→24.4%signal21 K — K% 21.5% (signal) lifted to career ~26.1% → projected 24.4% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 3.26noise3.68 ERA — xERA 3.26 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 5.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.19 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-4 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep7 SV, 3.68 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.