week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Jose Quintana
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (5.65); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.35ERA 4.40W 0–0SV 0
Quintana is a hold — league average, nothing unstable either way.
ROS projects K 20 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.51 YTD → 1.35 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %11.1%—−9.3% ▼vs his ~20.4% career norm
- Walk %9.0%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.65)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
158 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
158 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.359
lg avg .315 ▲+.044vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
199 / 200 TBF
xERA5.65
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.55vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
199 / 200 TBF
ERA5.40
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.30vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
45 / 200 IP
Strikeout %11.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.9%vs his norm −9.3% ▼
199 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
199 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.284
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
158 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
199 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
199 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo89.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−4.3 mphvs his norm —
757 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 11.1%→15.8%signal0 K — K% 11.1% (signal) lifted to career ~20.4% → projected 15.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.65noise4.40 ERA — xERA 5.65 (noise) blended 19% skill / 81% league 4.10 at 41 IP.
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.58 skill WHIP, blended 19…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.40 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.