week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Patrick Corbin
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xERA 5.37 +1.27 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 42ERA 4.93WHIP 1.39W 1–3SV 0
Corbin is a sell — skill is below league and stable.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.5%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~21.0% career norm
- Walk %7.1%—−0.0% ▼vs his ~7.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.37 +1.27 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
249 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
249 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.354
lg avg .315 ▲+.039vs his norm —
338 / 200 TBF
xERA5.37
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.27vs his norm —
338 / 200 TBF
ERA5.07
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.97vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
76.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
338 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −0.0% ▼
338 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.329
lg avg .295 ▲+.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
249 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
338 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
338 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
1331 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.5%→18.8%signal42 K — K% 17.5% (signal) lifted to career ~21.0% → projected 18.8% over ~53 remaining IP.
xERA 5.37signal4.93 ERA — xERA 5.37 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 49 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop42 K ROS, 4.93 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.