MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Patrick Corbin
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Patrick Corbin

TOR·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell stable xERA 5.51 +1.41 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 5.02WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0

Corbin is a sell — the expected numbers say the skill is gone

His expected ERA is 5.51, a run and a half above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. There is no luck story to soften it. His expected wOBA allowed is .355 against a .315 league mark, and his strikeout rate is 17.5% — nearly five points below league — so he is not missing bats enough to offset the contact he allows. He walks only 6.9% of batters, which is fine, and that is the problem: the control is there and the results still look like this. The trend is the wrong direction, too, with his expected ERA climbing as the sample has grown. He is what the numbers say he is. Sell. 0 K and a 5.02 ERA is a waiver-wire tax, not a hold — fringe at best, so cut him loose.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.5%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~21.0% career norm
  • Walk %6.9%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~7.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.51 +1.41 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.1%
42.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
266 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
266 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.355
.355*
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —
360 / 200 TBF
xERA5.51
5.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.41vs his norm —
360 / 200 TBF
ERA5.51
5.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.41vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.5%
norm17.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
360 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
360 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.340
.340*
lg avg .295 ▲+.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
266 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
360 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.7%
30.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
360 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.3 mph
91.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
1412 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.5%→18.8%signal0 K — K% 17.5% (signal) lifted to career ~21.0% → projected 18.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.51signal5.02 ERA — xERA 5.51 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 49 IP.
BB% 6.9% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.310 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 5.02 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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