Patrick Corbin
Corbin is a sell — the strikeout stuff is gone and the xERA shows it.
His expected ERA is 5.50, a run and a half above the league average of 4.10, and his sample is past the point where that number becomes reliable. There is no unlucky surface line to explain it away — his expected wOBA allowed of .356 is 41 points above league, and he does not miss bats. He strikes out 17.5% of batters against a league average of 22%, and his swinging-strike rate of 10% is below league, with a fastball averaging 91.3 mph against a league average of 94.0. When you allow contact this hard — 42.1% hard-hit, above league — without an above-average strikeout rate to offset it, the runs are the level he is at, not a slump. His walk rate is fine at 6.9%, but that is the only number working in his favor, and xERA has only stepped up as the sample has grown. There is no luck coming back. Sell. 9 K and a 5.01 ERA ROS: streaming-only fringe arm, pure waiver-wire drop.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.5%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~21.0% career norm
- Walk %6.9%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~7.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.50 +1.40 vs league with no luck excuse
5×5 ROS Outlook
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