MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—

Hayden Juenger

ATH·P
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 7% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.375 elevated and unstable, the 9.00 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 6.11 is +2.01 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Juenger is a hold — bad surface, bad underlying, no buy

His BABIP-against is .375, 80 points above the league average of .295, and that gap is why the 9.00 ERA is not the whole truth. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 65, so the surface is being distorted by luck rather than a repeatable skill. Strip it out and the picture does not get better: his expected ERA is 6.11, two full runs above the league average of 4.10, and it is built on a strikeout rate of 7.4% against a league mark of 22% — a stable number well below the threshold any successful starter needs. His chase rate is league average and his fastball is 94.6 mph, so there is no hidden pitch-quality story propping him up. This is not a buy and there is no real panic signal here either. Hold. 0 K and a 3.70 ERA ROS make this a deep-league hold only — nothing to add, nothing to drop.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.375 elevated and unstable — the 9.00 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 6.11 is +2.01 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 7% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.4%
35.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
65 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.7%
7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
65 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.371
.371*
lg avg .315 ▲+.056vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 200 TBF
xERA6.11
6.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.01vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 200 TBF
ERA9.00
9.00*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+4.90vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
16 / 200 IP
Strikeout %7.4%
7.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−14.6%vs his norm —
81 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.375
.375*
lg avg .295 ▲+.080vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
65 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.3%
28.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
94.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
292 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 7.4%→10.7%signal0 K — K% 7.4% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 10.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.11noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.11 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.75 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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