MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Hagen Smith

CWS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP-against 0.192 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.45 is 1.16 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Smith is a sell-high — his 1.29 ERA is a BABIP illusion

His ERA is 1.29, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .192, more than 100 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 53, so that gap is luck rather than a read on his pitching. Strip out the bounces and his expected ERA is 2.45 — 1.16 runs above what the box score shows, and that is the regression waiting. The stable skills are genuinely good: a 37.3% strikeout rate and 15.3% swinging strikes are both well above league, and he limits hard contact at 34%. Those support a strong pitcher, not a 1.29 one. This is the early sample, so the call rests on limited data, but the ERA is outrunning the skill underneath it. Sell high. Projected 0 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP confirms the sell-high — deep-league trade window, cash in before the bounces regress.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.192 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.45 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.0%
34.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
53 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.9%
1.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
53 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.243
.243*
lg avg .315 ▼−.072vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 200 TBF
xERA2.45
2.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.65vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 200 TBF
ERA1.29
1.29*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.81vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
28 / 200 IP
Strikeout %37.3%
37.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+15.3%vs his norm —
110 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.5%
14.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
110 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.192
.192*
lg avg .295 ▼−.103vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
53 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
110 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.7%
28.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
110 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
93.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
469 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 37.3%→34.6%signal0 K — K% 37.3% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 34.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.45noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.45 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 14.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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