MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Hoby Milner
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Hoby Milner

CHC·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Milner is a sell-high — ERA built on suppressed BABIP-against.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.95

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.228 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.90 is 2.41 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.4%
35.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL82 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL82 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.346
.346
lg avg .315 ▲+.031too early to trust
NOISE102 / 200 TBF
xERA4.90
4.90
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.80too early to trust
NOISE102 / 200 TBF
ERA2.49
2.49
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.61too early to trust
NOISE25.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %11.8%
11.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL102 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.9%
5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%too early to trust
NOISE102 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.228
.228
lg avg .295 ▼−.067too early to trust
NOISE82 / 800 BIP