week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Hoby Milner
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High strikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.275 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.39 is 1.36 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 3ERA 3.78WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0–0
Milner is a sell-high — his ERA is hiding the lack of strikes.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %13.1%—−8.5% ▼vs his ~21.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.275 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.39 is 1.36 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
127 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
127 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.353
lg avg .315 ▲+.038vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
160 / 200 TBF
xERA5.39
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.29vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
160 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
38 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.9%vs his norm −8.5% ▼
160 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm −0.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~6.5% norm — expect it to rise.
160 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.275
lg avg .295 ▼−.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
127 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
160 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
160 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo87.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−6.8 mphvs his norm —
614 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.1%→17.8%signal3 K — K% 13.1% (signal) lifted to career ~21.6% → projected 17.8% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 5.39noise3.78 ERA — xERA 5.39 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 5.6% + contactnoise1.25 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.78 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.