week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Hoby Milner
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (5.09); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.25ERA 3.77W 0–0SV 0–0
Milner is a hold — contact is fine, but the strikeouts aren't there
ROS projects K 12 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.03 YTD → 1.25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.1%—−7.5% ▼vs his ~21.6% career norm
- Walk %5.6%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~6.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.09)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
139 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
139 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.343
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
177 / 200 TBF
xERA5.09
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.99vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
177 / 200 TBF
ERA3.64
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.46vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
42 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.9%vs his norm −7.5% ▼
177 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
177 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.282
lg avg .295 ▼−.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
139 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo87.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−6.9 mphvs his norm —
674 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.1%→18.1%signal0 K — K% 14.1% (signal) lifted to career ~21.6% → projected 18.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.09noise3.77 ERA — xERA 5.09 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 5.6% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.