week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Gus Varland
data as of July 29, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (6.73); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 16ERA 3.76WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 2–4
Varland is a hold — league average, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects K 20 YTD → 16 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.3%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~21.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.73)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.5%vs his norm —
103 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed15.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm —
103 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.387
lg avg .315 ▲+.072vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
148 / 200 TBF
xERA6.73
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.63vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
148 / 200 TBF
ERA6.25
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.15vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
148 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm −0.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.7% norm — expect it to rise.
148 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.365
lg avg .295 ▲+.070vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
148 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
148 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
549 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.3%→20.8%signal16 K — K% 20.3% (signal) lifted to career ~21.1% → projected 20.8% over ~17 remaining IP.
xERA 6.73noise3.76 ERA — xERA 6.73 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 10.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.50 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-4 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep7 SV, 3.76 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.