week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Gus Varland
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (6.98); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.76WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0
Varland is a hold — league average, nothing unstable pointing either way.
ROS projects K 20 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.6%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~21.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.98)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed50.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+10.0%vs his norm —
108 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed15.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —
108 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.392
lg avg .315 ▲+.077vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
155 / 200 TBF
xERA6.98
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.88vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
155 / 200 TBF
ERA6.54
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.44vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
33 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
155 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm −1.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.7% norm — expect it to rise.
155 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.360
lg avg .295 ▲+.065vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
108 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
155 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
155 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
579 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.6%→20.9%signal0 K — K% 20.6% (signal) lifted to career ~21.1% → projected 20.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.98noise3.76 ERA — xERA 6.98 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 9.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.76 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.