MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—

Yerry De los Santos

NYY·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High BABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.79 is 2.75 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

De los Santos is a sell-high — his 2.04 ERA is BABIP luck.

His ERA is 2.04, but the number holding it down is not a skill. His BABIP-against is .254, 41 points below the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 69. That gap is luck, not a pitcher beating hitters. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 4.79, which is 2.75 runs above what the box score shows and above the league average of 4.1. There is nothing underneath to catch the fall: he strikes out 18.1% of batters against a 22% league average, his swinging-strike rate is 7.5% against 11%, and his hard-hit rate allowed is 43.5%, above the 40% league mark. Limited data — this call rests on the first stable sample of the season — but the surface is built on the one stat that cannot hold. Sell high. 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP rest-of-season is still a deep-league drag — move him now, before the sell window shuts.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.1%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~19.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.79 is 2.75 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.5%
43.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
69 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
69 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.334
.334*
lg avg .315 ▲+.019vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
94 / 200 TBF
xERA4.79
4.79*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.69vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
94 / 200 TBF
ERA2.04
2.04*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.06vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
22 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.1%
norm18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
94 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
norm8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −2.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~11.1% norm — expect it to rise.
94 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
.254*
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
69 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
94 / 60 TBF
Chase %22.0%
22.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.5%vs his norm —
94 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
94.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
358 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.1%→19.2%signal0 K — K% 18.1% (signal) lifted to career ~19.6% → projected 19.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.79noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.79 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 5 IP.
BB% 8.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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