week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Carlos Vargas
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.35); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Vargas is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable driving it
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.0%—+3.5% ▲vs his ~17.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.35)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.4%vs his norm —
56 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
56 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.320
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 200 TBF
xERA4.35
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.25vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 200 TBF
ERA4.74
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.64vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
19 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm +3.5% ▲
81 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm −2.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.8% norm — expect it to rise.
81 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.259
lg avg .295 ▼−.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
56 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
282 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.0%→18.5%signal0 K — K% 21.0% (signal) tempered to career ~17.5% → projected 18.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.35noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.35 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 4.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.