MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mitchell Parker
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Mitchell Parker

WSH·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable, the 6.58 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.23 is +1.13 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0WHIP 1.25ERA 3.83W 0–0SV 0–0

Parker is a hold — the ERA overstates the damage, but the skill is below league.

His ERA is 6.58, and that number is worse than the pitching underneath it. His BABIP-against is .319 against a league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable — he has 129. That gap is luck, not a verdict on his stuff. But strip the luck out and his expected ERA is 5.23, which is 1.13 runs above the league average of 4.10, so the level he regresses to is not a good one. He strikes out 19.1% of batters, below the league's 22.0%, and his walk rate of 7.3% is only slightly better than average. The panic should fade; the buy should not arrive. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Hold. With 3.83 ERA and 1.25 WHIP but 0 K in the ROS line, this is a deep-league hold — no add.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.1%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~17.5% career norm
  • Walk %7.3%—0.0%vs his ~7.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable — the 6.58 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.23 is +1.13 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.9%
41.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
129 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.347
.347*
lg avg .315 ▲+.032vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
178 / 200 TBF
xERA5.23
5.23*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.13vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
178 / 200 TBF
ERA6.58
6.58*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.48vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
39.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.1%
norm19.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
178 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
norm7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm 0.0%
178 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.319
.319*
lg avg .295 ▲+.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
129 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.1%
14.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
178 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
32.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
178 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
93.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
664 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.1%→18.3%signal0 K — K% 19.1% (signal) tempered to career ~17.5% → projected 18.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.23noise3.83 ERA — xERA 5.23 (noise) blended 8% skill / 92% league 3.70 at 29 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 8%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep1 SV, 3.83 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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