MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mitchell Parker
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Mitchell Parker

WSH·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable, the 6.58 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.18 is +1.08 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 6WHIP 1.25ERA 3.82W 0–1SV 0–0

Parker is a hold — the 6.58 ERA is inflated, but the regression level is below league.

His BABIP-against is .319, 24 points above the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 129, so that elevated rate is not yet a fact about his pitching — it is luck, and it is why his 6.58 ERA overstates the damage. But the skill underneath is not a buy, either. His expected ERA is 5.18, more than a run above league average, and this is a limited-data call: no baseline or trajectory to lean on, so the first stable sample of the season is what we have. He strikes out 19.1% of batters, below the 22% league mark, and his contact allowed is near league. There is a fake floor and a real below-average level. Hold. Deep-league hold only: 6 K, 3.82 ERA, 1.25 WHIP is a streamer's line, not a drag to cut.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.1%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~17.5% career norm
  • Walk %7.3%—0.0%vs his ~7.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable — the 6.58 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.18 is +1.08 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.9%
41.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
129 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.347
.347*
lg avg .315 ▲+.032vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
178 / 200 TBF
xERA5.18
5.18*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.08vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
178 / 200 TBF
ERA6.58
6.58*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.48vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
39.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.1%
norm19.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
178 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
norm7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm 0.0%
178 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.319
.319*
lg avg .295 ▲+.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
129 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.1%
14.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
178 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
32.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
178 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
93.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
664 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.1%→18.3%signal6 K — K% 19.1% (signal) tempered to career ~17.5% → projected 18.3% over ~7 remaining IP.
xERA 5.18noise3.82 ERA — xERA 5.18 (noise) blended 8% skill / 92% league 3.70 at 29 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 8%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep1 SV, 3.82 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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