week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Mitchell Parker
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable, the 6.58 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.13 is +1.03 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 25WHIP 1.25ERA 3.82W 1–3SV 1–1
Parker is a hold — damage overstated, but skill is average.
ROS projects K 26 YTD → 25 ROS, WHIP 1.17 YTD → 1.25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.1%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~17.5% career norm
- Walk %7.3%—0.0%vs his ~7.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable — the 6.58 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.13 is +1.03 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
129 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.347
lg avg .315 ▲+.032vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
178 / 200 TBF
xERA5.13
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.03vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
178 / 200 TBF
ERA6.58
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.48vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
39.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
178 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm 0.0%
178 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.319
lg avg .295 ▲+.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
129 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
178 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
178 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
664 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.1%→18.3%signal25 K — K% 19.1% (signal) tempered to career ~17.5% → projected 18.3% over ~29 remaining…
xERA 5.13noise3.82 ERA — xERA 5.13 (noise) blended 8% skill / 92% league 3.70 at 29 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 8%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep2 SV, 3.82 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.