MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Robert Stock

NYM·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.371 elevated and unstable, the 5.93 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.08 is +0.98 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Stock is a hold — panic is wrong, but so is a buy

His ERA is 5.93, and that number overstates the damage. The reason is his BABIP-against: .371, 76 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 99, so that gap is luck, not a skill signal. Strip the luck out and his expected ERA is 5.08, which is .98 above the league average of 4.10 — the level he regresses to is below average, not a buy. His strikeout rate is 19.7%, a touch under league, and he allows 36.4% hard contact, slightly better than the 40.0% league mark. There is no anchor here: limited data, this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Hold. 0 K ROS makes this a drag — with a 1.30 WHIP and 4.10 ERA, drop-tier streamer at best. Hold what you have, nothing more.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.7%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~22.4% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.371 elevated and unstable — the 5.93 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.08 is +0.98 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.4%
36.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
99 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
99 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.343
.343*
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
147 / 200 TBF
xERA5.08
5.08*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.98vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
147 / 200 TBF
ERA5.93
5.93*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.83vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
30.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.7%
norm19.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
147 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
norm10.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm −1.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~12.2% norm — expect it to rise.
147 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.371
.371*
lg avg .295 ▲+.076vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
99 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.4%
28.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
95.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
560 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.7%→21.2%signal0 K — K% 19.7% (signal) lifted to career ~22.4% → projected 21.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.08noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.08 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 5 IP.
BB% 10.2% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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