MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Tyler Glasnow

LAD·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy stable xERA 2.87, 1.23 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.87WHIP 1.13W 0–0SV 0

Glasnow is a buy — his expected ERA is 1.23 runs better than league.

His expected ERA is 2.87, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters — 288 — for that number to be reliable. The skill is built on missing bats: he strikes out 34% of the batters he faces, far above the league's 22%. His fastball has been ticking up across the season and sits at 95.5 mph, and he pairs that with a 13.6% swinging-strike rate that also beats league. His expected wOBA allowed is .263, so the contact he gives up is soft enough to trust. Nothing here is propped up by luck at the edges. His expected ERA is stepping down across the sample, which means the form is trending the right way. He walks 8.7% of batters, right at league average, which is the only number that does not stand out. The production is earned. Buy. 0 K ROS is a projection quirk, not a red flag — 2.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP make him a standard-league asset worth acquiring.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %34.0%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~31.0% career norm
  • Walk %8.7%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~9.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.87, 1.23 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.4%
38.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
164 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
164 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.263
.263*
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —
288 / 200 TBF
xERA2.87
2.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.23vs his norm —
288 / 200 TBF
ERA3.53
3.53*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.57vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
74 / 200 IP
Strikeout %34.0%
norm34.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.0%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
288 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
norm8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
288 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.244
.244*
lg avg .295 ▼−.051vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
164 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
13.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
288 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.5%
29.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
288 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.5 mph
95.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
1149 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 34.0%→32.8%signal0 K — K% 34.0% (signal) tempered to career ~31.0% → projected 32.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.87signal2.87 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.87 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.13 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 2.87 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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