MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Jason Foley

SF·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine; strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — luck-free xERA 3.49 sits 0.61 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.318 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.81
ROSK 5ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Foley is a buy low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not skill

His ERA is 4.19, and the number inflating it is his BABIP-against: .318, 23 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 67. That gap is luck, not a signal about his pitching. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 3.49, 0.61 below the league average of 4.10 — the ERA is hiding a real arm. The stuff backs it up: his fastball is sitting at 96.6 mph, above league, and it has been stepping up across the sample. His contact quality allowed is fine too — a 4.5% barrel rate against league average of 8.0%, on enough batted balls to trust. The catch is that he strikes out only 13.8% of batters against league average of 22.0%, which is below his career baseline and caps his ceiling. The skill is real; the ugly ERA will regress toward it. Buy low. A 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP ROS make him a deep-league streamer, not a stash — buy the dip only where you need arms.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %13.8%—−4.4% ▼vs his ~18.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.49 sits 0.61 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.318 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
4.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.290
.290*
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
87 / 200 TBF
xERA3.49
3.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.61vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
87 / 200 TBF
ERA4.19
4.19*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
19.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.8%
norm13.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.2%vs his norm −4.4% ▼
87 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
norm9.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm +3.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~6.1% norm — expect it to fall.
87 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.318
.318*
lg avg .295 ▲+.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
67 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.3%
7.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
87 / 60 TBF
Chase %22.7%
22.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
87 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.6 mph
96.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
314 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.8%→16.9%signal5 K — K% 13.8% (signal) lifted to career ~18.2% → projected 16.9% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 3.49noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.49 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 9.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups