week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Jason Foley
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (4.03); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Foley is a hold — a soft strikeout rate caps the ceiling.
ROS projects K 1 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %12.8%—−5.4% ▼vs his ~18.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.03)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
91 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
91 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 200 TBF
xERA4.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 200 TBF
ERA4.15
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
26 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.2%vs his norm −5.4% ▼
117 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm +3.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~6.1% norm — expect it to fall.
117 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.292
lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
117 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
117 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
448 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 12.8%→16.2%signal0 K — K% 12.8% (signal) lifted to career ~18.2% → projected 16.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.03noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.03 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 9.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.57 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.