week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Beck Way
data as of July 22, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.31); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 32ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Way is a hold — league average across the board, no edge.
ROS projects K 2 YTD → 32 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.31)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.320
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
98 / 200 TBF
xERA4.31
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.21vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
98 / 200 TBF
ERA3.22
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.88vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
22.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
98 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
98 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.317
lg avg .295 ▲+.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
67 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
98 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
98 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.4 mphvs his norm —
364 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.4%→21.9%signal32 K — K% 21.4% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 21.9% over ~16 remaining IP.
xERA 4.31noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.31 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 10.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.