week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Kohl Drake
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (7.91); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Drake is a hold — the sample is too thin to trust.
ROS projects K 5 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (7.91)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed49.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+9.3%vs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed16.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.4%vs his norm —
67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.412
lg avg .315 ▲+.097vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 200 TBF
xERA7.91
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.81vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 200 TBF
ERA6.53
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.43vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
20.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
95 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
95 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.306
lg avg .295 ▲+.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
67 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
95 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
95 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.4 mphvs his norm —
382 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.9%→18.7%signal0 K — K% 17.9% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 18.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 7.91noise4.10 ERA — xERA 7.91 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 5 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.