MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 23, 2026
week 18
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Riley Cornelio

WSH·P
data as of July 23, 2026·week 18
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.20 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.341 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 11ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Cornelio is a buy-low — the ERA is hiding his skill.

His fastball velocity is 96.3 mph, well above league average and stepping up over the sample — the arm is fine. The problem is his ERA, 6.06, which is being inflated by a .341 BABIP-against, 46 points above league. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 46. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 4.20, right around league average. On top of that, his swinging-strike rate is 17.1% against a league average of 11.0%, and his chase rate is 32.3% against 28.5% — both stable and above league. The stuff is real. The box score is not. Buy low. His 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP projection makes this a deep-league buy-low window before the ratio correction arrives.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.20 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.341 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.5%
43.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is above the ~40.0% league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
.316*
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 200 TBF
xERA4.20
4.20*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.10vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 200 TBF
ERA6.06
6.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.96vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
16.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.8%
21.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
78 / 70 TBF
Walk %19.2%
19.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+11.2%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.341
.341*
lg avg .295 ▲+.046vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.1%
17.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
78 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.3%
32.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
78 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
96.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
327 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.8%→22.2%signal11 K — K% 21.8% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 22.2% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 4.20noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.20 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 19.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 19% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.90 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups