MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luinder Avila
week 25
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Luinder Avila

KC·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.91 is +0.81 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.328 elevated and unstable, the 5.53 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 7ERA 4.49WHIP 1.53W 0–0SV 0

Avila is a hold — the ERA is noise, the skill is thin.

His ERA reads 5.53, but that number is being dragged around by a BABIP-against of .328, 33 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to mean anything and he has 204, so that gap is luck, not a verdict on his pitching. Strip the noise out and his expected ERA is 4.91 — .81 above the league average of 4.10. That is the level he regresses to, and it is below average. He walks 13.6% of batters against a league rate of 8.0%, and his expected wOBA allowed of .339 sits above the .315 league mark. His 96.1 mph fastball is real, but the command is not. Hold. 7 K and a 4.49 ERA on the ROS line make this a drop-tier drag — no reason to chase a 1.53 WHIP.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.7%—−4.1% ▼vs his ~23.8% career norm
  • Walk %13.6%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~12.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.328 elevated and unstable — the 5.53 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.91 is +0.81 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.3%
35.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
204 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
204 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.339
.339*
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
309 / 200 TBF
xERA4.91
4.91*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.81vs his norm —
309 / 200 TBF
ERA5.53
5.53*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.43vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
70 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.7%
norm19.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm −4.1% ▼
309 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.6%
norm13.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
309 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.328
.328*
lg avg .295 ▲+.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
204 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
309 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.9%
26.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
309 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
1293 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.7%→21.3%signal7 K — K% 19.7% (signal) lifted to career ~23.8% → projected 21.3% over ~7 remaining IP.
xERA 4.91signal4.49 ERA — xERA 4.91 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 13.6% + contactsignal1.53 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.68 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.49 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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