MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luinder Avila
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Luinder Avila

KC·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.83 +0.73 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.77
ROSK 31ERA 4.43WHIP 1.52W 1–2SV 0

Avila is a sell — below-league skill, no luck to blame.

His xERA is 4.83, which is 0.73 runs above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His BABIP-against is near league average, so the ERA is not being held down by luck — this is what he is. His command is a problem: he walks 13.7% of batters, far above the 8.0% league average, and that is not improving. The stuff is okay — fastball velocity is above league at 96.1 mph — but the swing-and-miss numbers are below average. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, so this is getting worse, not better. There is no hidden skill to buy, and no luck to sell. The market should price him at what the numbers say. Sell. 31 K / 4.43 ERA / 1.52 WHIP / 1-2 W / 0 SV — a drop-tier arm; send him to the waiver wire.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.2%—−3.6% ▼vs his ~23.8% career norm
  • Walk %13.7%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~12.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.83 +0.73 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.2%
believable since May 2636.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
163 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.7%
6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
163 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.338
.338*
lg avg .315 ▲+.023vs his norm —
248 / 200 TBF
xERA4.83
4.83*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.73vs his norm —
248 / 200 TBF
ERA5.08
5.08*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.98vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
56.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.2%
norm20.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm −3.6% ▼
248 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.7%
norm13.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
248 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
163 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
9.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
248 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.9%
26.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
248 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
1057 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.2%→21.8%signal31 K — K% 20.2% (signal) lifted to career ~23.8% → projected 21.8% over ~30 remaining IP.
xERA 4.83signal4.43 ERA — xERA 4.83 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 13.7% + contactsignal1.52 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.67 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.43 ERA, 1.52 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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