MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luinder Avila
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Luinder Avila

KC·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.95 is +0.85 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.328 elevated and unstable, the 5.53 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.51WHIP 1.53W 0–0SV 0

Avila is a hold — the ERA overstates it, the skill doesn't impress

His 5.53 ERA is not the whole story, and it is not the truth either. His BABIP-against is .328, 33 points above the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable while he has 204. That gap is luck, so the ERA overstates the damage. But pull the luck out and his expected ERA is 4.95, .85 above league average, and that number is based on enough batters faced to trust. The rest of the profile backs it up: he walks 13.6% of batters against a league average of 8.0%, and his expected wOBA allowed is .339. His expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample, which makes the skill level harder to read. There is no panic sale here and no bargain either. Hold. Projected 0 K / 4.51 ERA / 1.53 WHIP rest of the way is a drop, fringe arm — hold only if you must.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.7%—−4.1% ▼vs his ~23.8% career norm
  • Walk %13.6%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~12.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.328 elevated and unstable — the 5.53 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.95 is +0.85 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.3%
35.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
204 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
204 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.339
.339*
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
309 / 200 TBF
xERA4.95
4.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.85vs his norm —
309 / 200 TBF
ERA5.53
5.53*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.43vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
70 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.7%
norm19.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm −4.1% ▼
309 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.6%
norm13.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
309 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.328
.328*
lg avg .295 ▲+.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
204 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
309 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.9%
26.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
309 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
1293 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.7%→21.3%signal0 K — K% 19.7% (signal) lifted to career ~23.8% → projected 21.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.95signal4.51 ERA — xERA 4.95 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 13.6% + contactsignal1.53 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.68 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.51 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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