MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brady Singer
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Brady Singer

CIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xERA 5.99 +1.89 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 5.33WHIP 1.45W 0–0SV 0

Singer is a sell — the expected ERA has climbed to 5.99

His expected ERA is 5.99 — nearly two runs above the league average of 4.10 — and his workload is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing unlucky is propping it up. He is giving up harder contact than league: a 43.5% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, and 10.5% barrels against 8.0%. His xwOBA allowed is .368 against a .315 league mark, so batters are squaring him up, not getting fortunate. The strikeout rate sits at 17.4%, well below the 22.0% league average, and his fastball averages 90.7 mph against 94.0 — there is no swing-and-miss to bail him out when contact goes against him. The expected ERA has stepped up across the sample, and the gap to league is widening, not closing. This is the level he is at. Sell. 0 K / 5.33 ERA / 1.45 WHIP is waiver-wire filler — fade the name and stream the roster spot instead.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.4%—−4.3% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
  • Walk %8.6%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~7.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.99 +1.89 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.5%
43.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
522 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
522 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.368
.368*
lg avg .315 ▲+.053vs his norm —
725 / 200 TBF
xERA5.99
5.99*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.89vs his norm —
725 / 200 TBF
ERA5.85
5.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.75vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
157 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.4%
norm17.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm −4.3% ▼
725 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
725 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.321
.321*
lg avg .295 ▲+.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
522 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
725 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.0%
27.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
725 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.7 mph
90.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.3 mphvs his norm —
2801 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.4%→18.3%signal0 K — K% 17.4% (signal) lifted to career ~21.7% → projected 18.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.99signal5.33 ERA — xERA 5.99 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 51 IP.
BB% 8.6% + contactsignal1.45 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.312 gives a 1.53 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 5.33 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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