MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brady Singer
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Brady Singer

CIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xERA 5.22 +1.12 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.89
ROSK 9ERA 4.83WHIP 1.39W 0–1SV 0

Singer is a sell — the skill is below league and the ERA hides nothing.

His expected ERA is 5.22, a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be trusted. The contact he allows backs it up: a .348 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league average, with a 42.8% hard-hit rate and 9.3% barrels, both above league. His strikeout rate is 18.2%, below the 22% league mark, and his swinging-strike rate of 10.9% is right at league average, so there is no missing-bat story to explain the contact. His 7.8% walk rate is fine, but that only means he is not giving hitters extra help. Worse, his expected ERA has been climbing across the sample — the skill is heading the wrong direction, not correcting. Sell. 9 K and a 4.83 ERA ROS is streaming-only fringe — drop him and move on.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.2%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
  • Walk %7.8%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~7.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.22 +1.12 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.8%
42.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
474 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
9.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
474 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.348
.348*
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —
658 / 200 TBF
xERA5.22
5.22*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.12vs his norm —
658 / 200 TBF
ERA5.03
5.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.93vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
146.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.2%
norm18.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
658 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
norm7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
658 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.309
.309*
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
474 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
658 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.6%
27.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
658 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.7 mph
90.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.3 mphvs his norm —
2547 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.2%→19.0%signal9 K — K% 18.2% (signal) lifted to career ~21.7% → projected 19.0% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 5.22signal4.83 ERA — xERA 5.22 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 51 IP.
BB% 7.8% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop9 K ROS, 4.83 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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