MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brady Singer
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Brady Singer

CIN·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell stable xERA 5.51 +1.41 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 39ERA 5.02WHIP 1.36W 1–3SV 0

Singer is a sell — the numbers say regression is here.

His expected ERA sits at 5.51, a full 1.41 runs above league average, and his sample of 402 batters faced is past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual ERA matches the xERA closely, so there isn't a luck story to hide behind. He allows more hard contact than the average pitcher — 41.8% hard-hit rate — and a barrel rate of 10.1%, both above league averages. His strikeout rate is 18.9%, below the 22% league average, and his fastball velocity is just 90.7 mph, three ticks below the league. The xERA has been trending up over the course of the season, confirming that things are getting worse, not better. There is no value to exploit here — this is a pitcher performing at his true level. Sell. 39 K with a 5.02 ERA and 1.36 WHIP is a drop — no value to chase here.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.9%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
  • Walk %7.7%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~7.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.51 +1.41 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.8%
41.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
287 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
287 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.358
.358*
lg avg .315 ▲+.043vs his norm —
402 / 200 TBF
xERA5.51
5.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.41vs his norm —
402 / 200 TBF
ERA4.72
4.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.62vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
89.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.9%
norm18.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm −2.8% ▼
402 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
402 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.305
.305*
lg avg .295 ▲+.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
287 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
402 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.9%
27.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
402 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.7 mph
90.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.3 mphvs his norm —
1575 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.9%→19.8%signal39 K — K% 18.9% (signal) lifted to career ~21.7% → projected 19.8% over ~53 remaining IP.
xERA 5.51signal5.02 ERA — xERA 5.51 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 51 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop39 K ROS, 5.02 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups