MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Cole Ragans

KC·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.12); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.24WHIP 1.33W 0–0SV 0

Ragans is a hold — league average, no luck either way.

ROS projects K 45 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.8%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~29.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.12)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.8%
39.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
83 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed15.7%
15.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —
83 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.344
.344*
lg avg .315 ▲+.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
151 / 200 TBF
xERA5.12
5.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.02vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
151 / 200 TBF
ERA4.84
4.84*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.74vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.8%
norm29.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
151 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.2%
norm15.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm +5.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.6% norm — expect it to fall.
151 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.233
.233*
lg avg .295 ▼−.062vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
83 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
14.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.9%
27.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
94.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
639 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.8%→29.4%signal0 K — K% 29.8% (signal) tempered to career ~29.1% → projected 29.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.12noise4.24 ERA — xERA 5.12 (noise) blended 14% skill / 86% league 4.10 at 35 IP.
BB% 15.2% + contactnoise1.33 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 1…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.24 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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