week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Cole Ragans
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.06); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 51ERA 4.23WHIP 1.33W 1–2SV 0
Ragans is a hold — near average, no clear signal.
ROS projects K 45 YTD → 51 ROS, ERA 4.84 YTD → 4.23 ROS, WHIP 1.42 YTD → 1.33 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.8%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~29.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.06)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
83 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed15.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —
83 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.344
lg avg .315 ▲+.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
151 / 200 TBF
xERA5.06
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
151 / 200 TBF
ERA4.84
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.74vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
151 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm +5.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.6% norm — expect it to fall.
151 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.233
lg avg .295 ▼−.062vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
83 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
151 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
639 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.8%→29.4%signal51 K — K% 29.8% (signal) tempered to career ~29.1% → projected 29.4% over ~41 remaining…
xERA 5.06noise4.23 ERA — xERA 5.06 (noise) blended 14% skill / 86% league 4.10 at 35 IP.
BB% 15.2% + contactnoise1.33 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 1…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop51 K ROS, 4.23 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.