week 18
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Tarik Skubal
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy stable xERA 2.88, 1.22 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 47ERA 2.88WHIP 1.00W 2–5SV 0
Skubal is a buy — elite skill, no luck involved.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %31.5%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~29.0% career norm
- Walk %3.7%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~5.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.88, 1.22 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
222 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
222 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.265
lg avg .315 ▼−.050vs his norm —
349 / 200 TBF
xERA2.88
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.22vs his norm —
349 / 200 TBF
ERA2.70
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.40vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
90 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.5%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
349 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
349 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
222 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
349 / 60 TBF
Chase %37.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.2%vs his norm —
349 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —
1339 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.5%→30.6%signal47 K — K% 31.5% (signal) tempered to career ~29.0% → projected 30.6% over ~47 remaining…
xERA 2.88signal2.88 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.88 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 3.7% + contactsignal1.00 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.00 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard47 K ROS, 2.88 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.