week 12
this weekHOLD
last week—
Tarik Skubal
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.22); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 96ERA 3.91WHIP 1.25W 4–9SV 0
Skubal is a hold — league average, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 45 YTD → 96 ROS, ERA 2.70 YTD → 3.91 ROS, WHIP 0.95 YTD → 1.25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.1%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~29.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.22)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
114 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
114 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
166 / 200 TBF
xERA3.22
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.88vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
166 / 200 TBF
ERA2.70
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.40vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
43.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
166 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm −1.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~5.5% norm — expect it to rise.
166 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.295
lg avg .295 .000vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
114 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.1%→28.1%signal96 K — K% 27.1% (signal) lifted to career ~29.0% → projected 28.1% over ~89 remaining IP.
xERA 3.22noise3.91 ERA — xERA 3.22 (noise) blended 21% skill / 79% league 4.10 at 43 IP.
BB% 3.6% + contactnoise1.25 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.08 skill WHIP, blended 21…
run support + role4-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep96 K ROS, 3.91 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.