MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Javier Assad

CHC·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.48 is 0.85 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 4.21WHIP 1.29W 0–0SV 0

Assad is a sell-high — his 3.63 ERA is running on luck.

His BABIP-against is .243, 52 points below the league average of .295, and that gap is the whole story behind the ERA. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 285 — this number is luck, not skill, and it is holding his ERA down. The skill metrics point the other way. His expected ERA is 4.48, .85 higher than what the scoreboard shows, and it has stepped up across the sample rather than settling. He strikes out just 16.7% of batters against a 22.0% league average, and his swinging-strike rate of 7.1% is well below league — there is no missing-bats foundation to keep the low BABIP propped up. The regression is already showing in the underlying numbers. Sell high. Regression to a 4.21 ERA / 1.29 WHIP makes him waiver fodder; sell the inflated line before the bottom falls out.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %7.1%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~9.4% career norm
  • Strikeout %16.7%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~18.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.48 is 0.85 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.5%
43.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
285 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.7%
6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
285 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.324
.324*
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
378 / 200 TBF
xERA4.48
4.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.38vs his norm —
378 / 200 TBF
ERA3.63
3.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.47vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
94.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.7%
norm16.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
378 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
378 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.243
.243*
lg avg .295 ▼−.052vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
285 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
378 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.2%
23.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —
378 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
93.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
1506 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.7%→17.4%signal0 K — K% 16.7% (signal) lifted to career ~18.8% → projected 17.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.48signal4.21 ERA — xERA 4.48 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.21 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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