MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Javier Assad

CHC·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.63 is 1.05 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.238 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 5ERA 4.30WHIP 1.30W 1–1SV 0

Assad is a sell-high — the ERA is hiding a mediocre arm.

His ERA sits at 3.58, but the number propping it up is not sustainable. His BABIP-against is .238, well below the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 265. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.63 — a run higher than what the box score shows — so regression is coming. The underlying profile confirms it: he strikes out just 16.5% of batters, well below league average, and his swinging-strike rate is 6.5% against a league average of 11%. There is no strikeout foundation to fall back on when the batted balls stop finding gloves. The ERA is real on the scoreboard; the skill underneath is not. Sell high. With a 4.30 ERA and 5 K in the ROS line, this is a drop-tier sell — a deep-league streamer at best.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.5%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~18.8% career norm
  • Walk %7.4%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~9.4% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.238 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.63 is 1.05 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.7%
45.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
265 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
265 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.330
.330*
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
352 / 200 TBF
xERA4.63
4.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.53vs his norm —
352 / 200 TBF
ERA3.58
3.58*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.52vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.5%
norm16.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
352 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
norm7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
352 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.238
.238*
lg avg .295 ▼−.057vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
265 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
352 / 60 TBF
Chase %22.3%
22.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
352 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.4 mph
93.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
1393 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.5%→17.3%signal5 K — K% 16.5% (signal) lifted to career ~18.8% → projected 17.3% over ~8 remaining IP.
xERA 4.63signal4.30 ERA — xERA 4.63 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.276 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.30 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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