MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 22, 2026
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Javier Assad

CHC·P
data as of July 22, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.74 is 0.70 above the ERA, regression coming; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.93
ROSK 20ERA 4.38WHIP 1.30W 2–6SV 0

Assad is a sell-high — his ERA is living on luck.

His xERA is 4.74, which is 0.70 above his current ERA of 4.04 and also above the league average of 4.1. The gap is driven by a .243 BABIP-against, 52 points below league average, on just 195 balls in play — BABIP-against needs about 800 to stabilize. That means his ERA is being flattered by luck. Meanwhile his strikeout rate is 15.5%, falling below his career baseline of 18.8% and well below the league average of 22%. His xwOBA allowed is .334, above league average, and his hard-hit rate allowed is 48.7% — nearly nine points above league. The underlying skills do not support the surface line. Sell high. 20 K and 2-6 W with a 4.38 ERA and 1.30 WHIP make Assad a streaming-only option in deep leagues.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.5%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~18.8% career norm
  • Walk %6.4%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~9.4% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.74 is 0.70 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed48.7%
48.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.7%vs his norm —
195 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
195 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.334
.334*
lg avg .315 ▲+.019vs his norm —
251 / 200 TBF
xERA4.74
4.74*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.64vs his norm —
251 / 200 TBF
ERA4.04
4.04*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.06vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
62.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.5%
norm15.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm −3.3% ▼
251 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
251 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.243
.243*
lg avg .295 ▼−.052vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
195 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %5.5%
5.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
251 / 60 TBF
Chase %22.0%
22.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.5%vs his norm —
251 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
93.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
991 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.5%→17.0%signal20 K — K% 15.5% (signal) lifted to career ~18.8% → projected 17.0% over ~34 remaining IP.
xERA 4.74signal4.38 ERA — xERA 4.74 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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