MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Alex Vesia
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Alex Vesia

LAD·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.68, 1.42 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.68WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0–0

Vesia is a buy — the run prevention is earned, not lucky

His expected ERA is 2.68, a run and a half better than the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable — the expected-ERA trend is even stepping down as the sample grows, meaning the case is getting stronger, not weaker. The contact allowed backs it up: a .254 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league average, a 33.6% hard-hit rate a full six points better than league, and barrels at 6.1% versus 8.0%. He does two things well that hitters can't fake — striking out 31.2% of batters and drawing swings outside the zone on nearly a third of them. The one soft spot is a 13.5% walk rate, but the strikeouts more than cover the traffic. There is no ball-in-play luck holding this up. Buy. 0 K / 2.68 ERA / 1.32 WHIP is a deep-league asset — add the stable ratios now.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %13.5%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~11.1% career norm
  • Strikeout %31.2%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~32.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.68, 1.42 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.6%
believable since Jun 1433.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm —
131 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
131 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.254
.254*
lg avg .315 ▼−.061vs his norm —
237 / 200 TBF
xERA2.68
2.68*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.42vs his norm —
237 / 200 TBF
ERA2.64
2.64*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.46vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
58 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.2%
norm31.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.2%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
237 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.5%
norm13.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
237 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.205
.205*
lg avg .295 ▼−.090vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
131 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.2%
16.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
237 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.9%
31.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
237 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.1 mph
92.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —
1011 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.2%→31.9%signal0 K — K% 31.2% (signal) lifted to career ~32.8% → projected 31.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.68signal2.68 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.68 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 13.5% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep2.68 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups