week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—
Chase Petty
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Sell High strikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.236 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.73 is 0.90 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.91 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Petty is a sell-high — his ERA is riding a lucky BABIP.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.236 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.73 is 0.90 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
112 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
112 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.361
lg avg .315 ▲+.046vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
139 / 200 TBF
xERA5.73
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.63vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
139 / 200 TBF
ERA4.83
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.73vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %10.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−11.2%vs his norm —
139 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
139 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.236
lg avg .295 ▼−.059vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
112 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
139 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
139 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
477 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 10.8%→13.0%signal0 K — K% 10.8% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 13.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.73noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.73 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 11 IP.
BB% 6.5% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.