week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Braydon Fisher
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.89 is 0.69 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.93 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6ERA 3.82WHIP 1.41W 0–0SV 0–0
Fisher is a sell-high — the ERA is 3.20, the skill isn't
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.8%—−5.4% ▼vs his ~29.2% career norm
- Walk %13.3%—+3.8% ▲vs his ~9.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.89 is 0.69 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
177 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
177 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
286 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21vs his norm —
286 / 200 TBF
ERA3.20
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.90vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
70.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm −5.4% ▼
286 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm +3.8% ▲
286 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.253
lg avg .295 ▼−.042vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
286 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
286 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
1140 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.8%→26.0%signal6 K — K% 23.8% (signal) lifted to career ~29.2% → projected 26.0% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.89signal3.82 ERA — xERA 3.89 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 33 IP.
BB% 13.3% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.50 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.