MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Braydon Fisher
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Braydon Fisher

TOR·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High BABIP-against 0.236 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.82 is 0.37 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.70
ROSK 26WHIP 1.26ERA 3.71W 1–2SV 0–1

Fisher is a sell-high — BABIP luck is flattering his ERA.

His ERA sits at 3.45, but that number is being held down by a .236 BABIP-against that is 59 points below league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 117. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 3.82 — a full 0.37 runs higher, signaling regression when the BABIP normalizes. The contact quality allowed is slightly worse than league average: his hard-hit rate is 40.2% (40.0% league), and his barrel rate of 12.8% is nearly 5 points above league. The swinging-strike rate is good, but he walks 11.6% of batters, above the 8% league average, which limits his margin for error. The surface ERA looks good today, but the underlying data points to a correction. Sell high. 26 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.26 WHIP regression is priced in — a deep-league trade window, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.4%—−3.8% ▼vs his ~29.2% career norm
  • Walk %11.6%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~9.5% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.236 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.82 is 0.37 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.2%
40.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
117 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.8%
12.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
117 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
.304*
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
189 / 200 TBF
xERA3.82
3.82*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.28vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
189 / 200 TBF
ERA3.45
3.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.65vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
47 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.4%
norm25.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm −3.8% ▼
189 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.6%
normbelievable since Jun 2411.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
189 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.236
.236*
lg avg .295 ▼−.059vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
117 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
189 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.0%
31.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
189 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
94.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
755 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.4%→27.4%signal26 K — K% 25.4% (signal) lifted to career ~29.2% → projected 27.4% over ~24 remaining IP.
xERA 3.82noise3.71 ERA — xERA 3.82 (noise) blended 12% skill / 88% league 3.70 at 33 IP.
BB% 11.6% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 1…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.71 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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