week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Braydon Fisher
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.24 is 1.03 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.249 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.05WHIP 1.43W 0–0SV 0–0
Fisher is a sell-high — the ERA is luck, the xERA is not
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.9%—−5.3% ▼vs his ~29.2% career norm
- Walk %14.2%—+4.7% ▲vs his ~9.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.249 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.24 is 1.03 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
189 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
189 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
310 / 200 TBF
xERA4.24
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.14vs his norm —
310 / 200 TBF
ERA3.21
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.89vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
75.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −5.3% ▼
310 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm +4.7% ▲
310 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.249
lg avg .295 ▼−.046vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
189 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
310 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
310 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
1256 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.9%→26.0%signal0 K — K% 23.9% (signal) lifted to career ~29.2% → projected 26.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.24signal4.05 ERA — xERA 4.24 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 33 IP.
BB% 14.2% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.54 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.05 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.