Is Zac Thornton a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell High — surface results exceed what the underlying metrics support; sell into the hype.

What is Zac Thornton's rest-of-season outlook?

3.42 ERA hides 4.51 xERA; only 18.7% K rate

week 31

this weekSELL-HIGH

last weekSELL-HIGH

Zac Thornton

NYM·P

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

Sell High luck-free xERA 4.51 is 1.09 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.269 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95

ROSK 0ERA 4.37WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0

Thornton is a sell-high — his 3.42 ERA is running on luck.

His 3.42 ERA is the number the market sees, but the outs behind it are falling his way at a rate that won't hold — his BABIP-against is .269 against a league average of .295, and that gap is luck at 253 balls in play, roughly a third of the 800 needed for the stat to be reliable. His expected ERA is 4.51, more than a full run above what the box score shows, and that gap has gotten wider as the sample has grown. The stuff doesn't offer a floor: he strikes out 18.7% of batters, well below league average, and his swinging-strike rate of 9.3% trails the league, so the bottom won't lift much when the bounces even out. The ERA is real on the scoreboard; the skill is a run worse. Sell high. With 0 K and a 4.37 ERA ROS, the trade window is your asset: cash the inflated line before it turns to drag, even deep-league.

Drivers

babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.269 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.51 is 1.09 above the ERA — regression coming

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed41.1%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —

253 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed9.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —

253 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.325

lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —

337 / 200 TBF

xERA4.51

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —

337 / 200 TBF

ERA3.42

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.68vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

84.3 / 200 IP

Strikeout %18.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —

337 / 70 TBF

Walk %5.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —

337 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.269

lg avg .295 ▼−.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

253 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.3%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —

337 / 60 TBF

Chase %32.7%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —

337 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo92.3 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —

1257 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 18.7%→19.4%signal0 K — K% 18.7% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 19.4% over ~0 remaining IP.

xERA 4.51signal4.37 ERA — xERA 4.51 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 10 IP.

BB% 5.3% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP.

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdeep0 K ROS, 4.37 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons