Is Zac Thornton a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Zac Thornton's rest-of-season outlook?

3.53 ERA masks 4.66 xERA and 19% strikeout rate

week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Zac Thornton

NYM·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

Sell stable xERA 4.66 +0.56 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.72

ROSK 11ERA 4.46WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

Thornton is a sell — a below-league arm with no luck to blame.

His xERA is 4.66, more than half a run above the league average of 4.10, and at 267 batters faced that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. His xwOBA allowed of .331 is 16 points above league, so the contact he gives up is not the kind that runs cold — it is the kind that keeps scoring. There is no BABIP-against story to soften it: nothing unstable is holding the ERA above where the skill sits. The strikeout rate is 19.1%, below league, and his swinging-strike rate of 9.9% is below league too, so he is not missing bats enough to change the picture. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample. Sell. 11 K and a 4.46 ERA ROS: streaming-only fringe, not a hold — fade the production and cut him.

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.66 +0.56 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed39.7%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —

199 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed9.0%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —

199 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.331

lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —

267 / 200 TBF

xERA4.66

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.56vs his norm —

267 / 200 TBF

ERA3.53

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.57vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

66.3 / 200 IP

Strikeout %19.1%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —

267 / 70 TBF

Walk %5.6%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —

267 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.283

lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

199 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.9%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —

267 / 60 TBF

Chase %31.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —

267 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo92.1 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —

1006 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 19.1%→19.7%signal11 K — K% 19.1% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 19.7% over ~11 remaining IP.

xERA 4.66signal4.46 ERA — xERA 4.66 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 10 IP.

BB% 5.6% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP.

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.46 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons