week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Erik Sabrowski
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.88); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 32ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0
Sabrowski is a hold — limited data, stable strikeout skill.
ROS projects K 39 YTD → 32 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %38.5%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~39.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.88)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
59 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
59 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.265
lg avg .315 ▼−.050vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
130 / 200 TBF
xERA2.88
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.22vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
130 / 200 TBF
ERA3.56
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
30.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %38.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+16.5%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
130 / 70 TBF
Walk %16.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.2%vs his norm +1.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~15.1% norm — expect it to fall.
130 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
59 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
130 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
130 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
546 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 38.5%→39.3%signal32 K — K% 38.5% (signal) lifted to career ~39.8% → projected 39.3% over ~17 remaining IP.
xERA 2.88noise3.69 ERA — xERA 2.88 (noise) blended 1% skill / 99% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 16.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 1…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.