MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tanner Gordon
week 25
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Tanner Gordon

COL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.41 is +0.31 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.340 elevated and unstable, the 5.40 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 10ERA 4.16WHIP 1.29W 0–0SV 0

Gordon is a hold — the ERA is noise, the skill underneath is below league.

His ERA is 5.40, but that number is being stretched by a BABIP-against of .340, 45 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize and he has 311, so that gap is luck, not a signal. Strip the noise out and his expected ERA is 4.41 — 0.31 above league — and that number has cleared the 200-batter threshold. The underlying profile is soft: he strikes out 18.7% of batters and allows a 42.1% hard-hit rate, both worse than league. His walk rate is low but the contact-quality markers and the rising expected ERA say there is no bounce coming. Not a panic sell; not a buy. Hold. 10 K and a 4.16 ERA ROS makes him a deep-league hold at best — no add, just a drop-tier streamer.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %4.2%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~4.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %18.7%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~18.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.340 elevated and unstable — the 5.40 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.41 is +0.31 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.1%
42.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
311 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
311 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
believable since Jul 6.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —
406 / 200 TBF
xERA4.41
4.41*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.31vs his norm —
406 / 200 TBF
ERA5.40
5.40*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.30vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
93.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.7%
norm18.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
406 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.2%
norm4.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
406 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.340
.340*
lg avg .295 ▲+.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
311 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
406 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.9%
31.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
406 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
92.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
1423 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.7%→18.7%signal10 K — K% 18.7% (signal) held to career ~18.8% → projected 18.7% over ~10 remaining IP.
xERA 4.41signal4.16 ERA — xERA 4.41 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 35 IP.
BB% 4.2% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.312 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.16 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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