MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tanner Gordon
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Tanner Gordon

COL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans sell but luck-free xERA 4.90 is +0.80 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy — BABIP-against 0.377 elevated and unstable, the 6.44 ERA overstates the damage; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 40ERA 4.48WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

Gordon is a hold — the ERA is noise, but the skill is below league.

His ERA of 6.44 is ugly, but it is inflated by a .377 BABIP-against — 82 points above league average and inherently unstable at 168 balls in play. Strip that luck out and his expected ERA sits at 4.90, which is still 0.80 runs above league average. That is the level his true skill regresses to. He allows a 44.6% hard-hit rate and 11.9% barrel rate, both well above league norms, and his strikeout rate (20.6%) is slightly below average. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample — there is no sign of an underlying break. If you own him, the market is overreacting to the ERA, but there is no buy signal here either. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.6%—+1.8% ▲vs his ~18.8% career norm
  • Walk %4.8%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.377 elevated and unstable — the 6.44 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.90 is +0.80 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.6%
44.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
168 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
168 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.340
believable since Jul 6.340*
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
228 / 200 TBF
xERA4.90
4.90*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.80vs his norm —
228 / 200 TBF
ERA6.44
6.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.34vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
50.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.6%
norm20.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm +1.8% ▲
228 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.8%
norm4.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
228 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.377
.377*
lg avg .295 ▲+.082vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
168 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
11.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
228 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.4%
27.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
228 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.7 mph
92.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.3 mphvs his norm —
841 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.6%→19.7%signal40 K — K% 20.6% (signal) tempered to career ~18.8% → projected 19.7% over ~42 remaining…
xERA 4.90signal4.48 ERA — xERA 4.90 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 35 IP.
BB% 4.8% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.312 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.48 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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