MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tobias Myers
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Tobias Myers

NYM·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.15); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.99WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0–0

Myers is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable underneath

His expected ERA is 4.15, essentially the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 230 batters — past the point where that number becomes reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .313 against a league average of .315, so the two skill metrics agree: hitters are producing at a normal rate against him. His strikeout rate of 17.8% is below league, offset by a 7.0% walk rate, so there is no strong signal either direction. The one trend worth naming is that his expected ERA has stepped up across the sample, though not far enough to call him a sell. He does allow hard contact above league at 44.5%, but the barrel rate allowed of 5.2% is below league. The profile is ordinary and stable. There is no edge to buy and no window to sell. Hold. 0 K, 3.99 ERA, 1.32 WHIP is pure drop-tier filler — a waiver drag, not a hold worth committing to.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.8%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~20.6% career norm
  • Walk %7.0%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~6.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.15)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.5%
44.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
173 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
173 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
230 / 200 TBF
xERA4.15
4.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —
230 / 200 TBF
ERA5.53
5.53*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.43vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
53.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.8%
norm17.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm −2.8% ▼
230 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
norm7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
230 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.290
.290*
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
173 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
230 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
29.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
230 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.5 mph
92.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
836 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.8%→19.1%signal0 K — K% 17.8% (signal) lifted to career ~20.6% → projected 19.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.15signal3.99 ERA — xERA 4.15 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 35 IP.
BB% 7.0% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop3.99 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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