MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tobias Myers
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Tobias Myers

NYM·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xERA 4.56 +0.46 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.69
ROSK 5ERA 4.26WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0–0

Myers is a sell — his expected ERA is drifting the wrong way.

His expected ERA is 4.56, nearly half a run above the league average of 4.1, and it has been stepping up across the sample. There is no luck story to lean on here: his BABIP-against is not carrying a bad-break gap, and his expected wOBA allowed of .328 sits above the league mark of .315. The stuff does not offer a counterweight. He strikes out 17.3% of batters against a 22% league rate, and his swinging-strike rate of 9.7% is below the 11% league mark, so the strikeout pitch is not there. His walk rate of 6.4% is a real strength, but it cannot carry a profile that allows a 46.1% hard-hit rate. The contact he allows is too loud and the misses are too few. Sell. A 5 K / 4.26 ERA / 1.32 WHIP line is streaming-only; drop him before the drag compounds.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.3%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~20.6% career norm
  • Walk %6.4%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~6.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.56 +0.46 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.1%
46.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
154 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.8%
5.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
154 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
.328*
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
202 / 200 TBF
xERA4.56
4.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.46vs his norm —
202 / 200 TBF
ERA6.13
6.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.03vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
47 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.3%
norm17.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm −3.3% ▼
202 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
202 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.299
.299*
lg avg .295 ▲+.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
202 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.7%
29.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
202 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.7 mph
92.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.3 mphvs his norm —
733 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.3%→18.9%signal5 K — K% 17.3% (signal) lifted to career ~20.6% → projected 18.9% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 4.56signal4.26 ERA — xERA 4.56 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 35 IP.
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.26 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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