week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Brycen Mautz
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.58); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Mautz is a hold — league average across the board, nothing to sell.
ROS projects K 10 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.58)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.8%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
43 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
43 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.357
lg avg .315 ▲+.042vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
75 / 200 TBF
xERA5.58
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.48vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
75 / 200 TBF
ERA5.87
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.77vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
15.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
75 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
75 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.400
lg avg .295 ▲+.105vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
43 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
75 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
75 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
302 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.3%→25.0%signal0 K — K% 25.3% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 25.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.58noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.58 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 6 IP.
BB% 14.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.60 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.