week 12
this weekHOLD
last week—
Andrew Nardi
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.06); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 45ERA 3.73WHIP 1.24W 3–7SV 0
Nardi is a hold — league average, no signal to act on.
ROS projects K 27 YTD → 45 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.3%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~30.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.06)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
60 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
60 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
99 / 200 TBF
xERA5.06
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
99 / 200 TBF
ERA5.16
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.06vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
22.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
99 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm +0.9% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.2% norm — expect it to fall.
99 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.309
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
60 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.3%→29.7%signal45 K — K% 27.3% (signal) lifted to career ~30.8% → projected 29.7% over ~35 remaining IP.
xERA 5.06noise3.73 ERA — xERA 5.06 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 11.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.