week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Reid Detmers
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xERA 3.38, 0.72 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.82 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 70ERA 3.38WHIP 1.21W 1–2SV 0
Detmers is a buy — skill is real and trending up.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Walk %7.7%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~9.1% career norm
- Strikeout %27.2%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~26.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.38, 0.72 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
289 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
289 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.287
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —
452 / 200 TBF
xERA3.38
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.72vs his norm —
452 / 200 TBF
ERA4.39
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.29vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
108.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
452 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
452 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.279
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
289 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
452 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
452 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
1794 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.2%→26.8%signal70 K — K% 27.2% (signal) tempered to career ~26.0% → projected 26.8% over ~59 remaining…
xERA 3.38signal3.38 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.38 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep70 K ROS, 3.38 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.