week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Reid Detmers
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Detmers is a buy — skill is real, ERA is earned.
His expected ERA is 2.91, a full run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His actual ERA tracks with it, so there is no luck propping up his line. He suppresses hard contact: his hard-hit rate allowed is 36.9%, his barrel rate is 7.3%, and his expected wOBA allowed is .272 — all better than league averages and past the stabilization points. He strikes out 28.5% of batters, well above league, while walking a modest 7.6%. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, confirming the trend. This is a pitcher who earns his results, not one waiting for regression. Buy.
Buy
high0.92
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.91, 1.19 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL179 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL179 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.272
lg avg .315 ▼−.043trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL288 / 200 TBF
xERA2.91
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.19trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL288 / 200 TBF
ERA4.63
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.53too early to trust
NOISE68 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL288 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL288 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.301
lg avg .295 ▲+.006too early to trust
NOISE179 / 800 BIP