MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Reid Detmers
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Reid Detmers

LAA·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xERA 3.30, 0.80 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.84
ROSK 0ERA 3.30WHIP 1.12W 0–0SV 0

Detmers is a buy — the expected ERA backs a real step forward

His expected ERA is 3.30, eight-tenths of a run below the league average of 4.10, and his sample is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The contact allowed says the same thing: a .281 expected wOBA against a .315 league mark, with hard-hit rate and barrel rate both right at league. That is a pitcher whose run prevention is being earned, not borrowed. He strikes out 28.5% of batters and walks 6.5%, and a 14.4% swinging-strike rate is the kind of miss rate that holds up. The expected ERA has stepped down across the sample while the fastball has ticked up to 94.1 mph. The skill is moving in the right direction and the results already show it. Buy. 0 K and a 3.30 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP is a deep-league asset worth adding now — not a shallow-roster priority.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.5%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~9.1% career norm
  • Strikeout %28.5%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~26.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.30, 0.80 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.7%
37.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
475 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
475 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.281
.281*
lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —
740 / 200 TBF
xERA3.30
3.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.80vs his norm —
740 / 200 TBF
ERA3.36
3.36*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.74vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
185 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.5%
norm28.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
740 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.5%
norm6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
740 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.275
.275*
lg avg .295 ▼−.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
475 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
14.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
740 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
740 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
94.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
2958 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.5%→28.0%signal0 K — K% 28.5% (signal) tempered to career ~26.0% → projected 28.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.30signal3.30 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.30 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.5% + contactsignal1.12 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.12 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.30 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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