MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Reid Detmers
week 25
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last weekBUY

Reid Detmers

LAA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy stable xERA 3.17, 0.93 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.88
ROSK 16ERA 3.17WHIP 1.13W 0–1SV 0

Detmers is a buy — his expected ERA keeps stepping down.

His expected ERA is 3.17 — .93 of a run better than the league average of 4.10 — and at 672 batters faced that number is past the point of reliability. Better yet, it has stepped down across the sample, so the skill is trending in the right direction, not just sitting there. His xwOBA allowed is .277, .038 below league average, and he is missing bats at 28.4% against a league mark of 22.0% while walking just 6.7%. He also suppresses hard contact: 37.4% hard-hit allowed against 40.0% league. His fastball sits at 94.1 mph and has been stepping up across the season. The ERA is not riding a lucky BABIP-against; the profile underneath is real. Buy. 16 K and a 3.17 ERA the rest of the way make him an asset — go get him.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.4%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~26.0% career norm
  • Walk %6.7%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~9.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.17, 0.93 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.4%
37.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
430 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
430 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.277
.277*
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —
672 / 200 TBF
xERA3.17
3.17*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.93vs his norm —
672 / 200 TBF
ERA3.32
3.32*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.78vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
168 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.4%
norm28.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.4%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
672 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
norm6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
672 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
.273*
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
430 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
14.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
672 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
672 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
94.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
2696 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.4%→27.9%signal16 K — K% 28.4% (signal) tempered to career ~26.0% → projected 27.9% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 3.17signal3.17 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.17 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.7% + contactsignal1.13 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard16 K ROS, 3.17 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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