week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
John Schreiber
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.03 is 0.75 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.246 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.91WHIP 1.42W 0–0SV 0–0
Schreiber is a sell-high — the ERA is propped up by BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.3%—−7.8% ▼vs his ~24.1% career norm
- Walk %10.6%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~8.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.246 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.03 is 0.75 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
179 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
179 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
246 / 200 TBF
xERA4.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —
246 / 200 TBF
ERA3.28
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.82vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm −7.8% ▼
246 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
246 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.246
lg avg .295 ▼−.049vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
179 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
246 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
246 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
997 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.3%→19.8%signal0 K — K% 16.3% (signal) lifted to career ~24.1% → projected 19.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.03signal3.91 ERA — xERA 4.03 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 10.6% + contactsignal1.42 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop3.91 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.