week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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John Schreiber
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Schreiber is a sell-high — ERA is BABIP luck, xERA says regression.
His ERA is 2.74, but the number keeping it low is his BABIP-against: .242, 53 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 70 — that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 5.07, a 2.33-run gap that points directly to regression. The strikeout rate is 13.7%, well below the league average of 22%, and that is stable — there is no elite-stuff story to fall back on. His hard-hit rate allowed is slightly above league, but barrel rate is below league, which is modestly encouraging but not enough to change the picture. The surface ERA is a mirage. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.242 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.07 is 2.33 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL70 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL70 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.351
lg avg .315 ▲+.036too early to trust
NOISE95 / 200 TBF
xERA5.07
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.97too early to trust
NOISE95 / 200 TBF
ERA2.74
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.36too early to trust
NOISE23 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL95 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.6%too early to trust
NOISE95 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.242
lg avg .295 ▼−.053too early to trust
NOISE70 / 800 BIP