MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—

Zak Kent

data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (5.30); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Kent is a hold — league average arm, nothing unstable driving it.

ROS projects K 9 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.6%—−4.4% ▼vs his ~20.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.30)
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.9%
43.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
57 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
57 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
.349*
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 200 TBF
xERA5.30
5.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.20vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 200 TBF
ERA5.51
5.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.41vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
16.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.6%
norm15.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm −4.4% ▼
77 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
norm10.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm −0.8% ▼Walk % is below his ~11.2% norm — expect it to rise.
77 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.296
.296*
lg avg .295 ▲+.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
57 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
10.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
77 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.6%
30.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
77 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
92.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
294 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.6%→18.8%signal0 K — K% 15.6% (signal) lifted to career ~20.0% → projected 18.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.30noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.30 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 10 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.57 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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