week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Huascar Brazobán
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.50 is 0.54 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.224 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.87 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.50WHIP 1.35W 0–0SV 0
Brazobán is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.0%—−2.9% ▼vs his ~23.9% career norm
- Walk %10.9%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~11.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.224 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.50 is 0.54 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.1%vs his norm —
181 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
181 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.289
lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —
267 / 200 TBF
xERA3.50
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.60vs his norm —
267 / 200 TBF
ERA2.96
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.14vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
67 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm −2.9% ▼
267 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
267 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.224
lg avg .295 ▼−.071vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
181 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
267 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
267 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
1040 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.0%→22.2%signal0 K — K% 21.0% (signal) lifted to career ~23.9% → projected 22.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.50signal3.50 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.50 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.9% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.