week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Huascar Brazobán
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.54 is 0.38 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.80 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 3.54WHIP 1.37W 0–1SV 0
Brazobán is a sell-high — his ERA is riding a lucky BABIP.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.4%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~23.9% career norm
- Walk %11.5%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~11.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.54 is 0.38 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.0%vs his norm —
168 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
168 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.292
lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —
252 / 200 TBF
xERA3.54
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56vs his norm —
252 / 200 TBF
ERA3.16
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.94vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
62.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
252 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
252 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.230
lg avg .295 ▼−.065vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
168 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
252 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
252 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
981 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.4%→22.5%signal4 K — K% 21.4% (signal) lifted to career ~23.9% → projected 22.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.54signal3.54 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.54 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.5% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.54 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.