week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Huascar Brazobán
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Brazobán is a sell-high — ERA is all luck.
His ERA is 1.86, but that number is built on an unsustainable .197 BABIP-against — nearly 100 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 78. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 2.34, which is already nearly 0.50 higher and will climb further when the BABIP normalizes. Limited data: this call rests on a small sample of 29 IP and 115 TBF, and the underlying contact-suppression metrics — 21.8% hard-hit rate and 1.3% barrel rate — are elite but based on just 78 batted balls. The strikeout rate is near league average, so there is no swing-and-miss cushion. The regression is baked in. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.74
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.34 is 0.48 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed21.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−18.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL78 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL78 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.244
lg avg .315 ▼−.071too early to trust
NOISE115 / 200 TBF
xERA2.34
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.76too early to trust
NOISE115 / 200 TBF
ERA1.86
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.24too early to trust
NOISE29 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL115 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%too early to trust
NOISE115 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.197
lg avg .295 ▼−.098too early to trust
NOISE78 / 800 BIP